US Economics Weekly Second quarter shaping up to be as weak as the first The data released last week strongly suggested that the recovery has hit its second "soft patch" which, for an expansion that is less than two years old, is troubling to say the least. Admittedly... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Even the industrial recovery hits the rocks On the face of it, the sharp drop in last week’s manufacturing PMI suggested that output in the sector has actually started to fall again. It is clearly disappointing that even the previously bright... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank Indonesia to bide its time, but not for long We have changed our forecast that Bank Indonesia (BI) will raise its policy rate on Thursday and now believe that the reference rate will be held at 6.75%. This is because headline inflation continues... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek bond plan faces big hurdles Last week’s news of proposals for a voluntary “rollover” of Greek debt brought some hope that the policy impasse over the crisis may soon be over. Crucially, there were signs that the ECB − until now... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil GDP growth to remain unbalanced Although Brazilian GDP growth was around its potential rate of 4-5% y/y in Q1, underlying concerns about imbalances remain. With domestic demand driving growth and inflation likely to have exceeded... 3rd June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The very disappointing 54,000 increase in May's non-farm payrolls, down sharply from a 232,000 gain in April, will undoubtedly lead to calls for the Fed to continue with its large-scale asset... 3rd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (May) May’s CIPS/Markit report on services was thankfully not as bad as the manufacturing survey released earlier this week. Nonetheless, the slight deterioration provided further evidence that the economic... 3rd June 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US Treasuries continue to flourish 10-year US Treasury yields dropped sharply in May. The principal catalyst for the decline was a further revision to expectations for short-term interest rates. Admittedly, investors now see little... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Doubling of consumption tax still not enough Japan’s DPJ-led administration finally seems ready to bow to the inevitable and double the country’s consumption tax over the next five years. However, this might not be enough to pay for the... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What is the economic impact of Egypt's new budget? Egypt’s government budget for the fiscal year 2011/12 (which starts in July) has focused on public sector salaries, as well as food and fuel subsidies, which is predictable given the social unrest and... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will West End office rents outpace the City this year? The recent data-flow suggests that West End office rental value growth for 2011 as a whole could be considerably higher than the City. That would be in contrast with both our own and the consensus... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fringes of UK to be worst affected by fiscal squeeze The relative performance of the regions of the UK over the next few years depends in part on their different exposure to the public sector and the fiscal squeeze. The fringes of the UK – and Northern... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) The gradual slowdown in economic growth should help to ease price pressures over coming months. Recent figures show that food prices continue to fall, while underlying non-food inflation appears to be... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Plenty of life left in the Treasury market rally The yield on 10-year Treasuries has fallen below 3% for the first time this year and by more than 60bp since early April. To some, this rally must inevitably come to an end soon. After all, the Fed’s... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
