UK Housing Market Update Have borrowers benefited from lower advertised mortgage rates? According to the Bank of England, advertised tracker and two-year fixed mortgage interest rates hit an all-time low in May. Yet the growing gap between advertised rates and the average rates being... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Apr.) Core machinery orders dipped in April but are expected to rebound over the rest of the second quarter. This is consistent with other evidence that the Japanese economy will return to growth in the... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does inflation offer a way out of the debt crisis? Deliberately embracing higher inflation as a way out of the sovereign debt crisis could have disastrous consequences. Instead, for most advanced countries, wherever it is feasible, a combination of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly End of Korea's tightening cycle in sight The Bank of Korea's decision to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 3.25% on Friday surprised the consensus which had expected no change but was in line with our view. We expect another hike in Q3 and... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is housing really in short supply? Over the last ten years, the accumulation of excess new housing inventory, sharp increases in homeownership rates and rising rental vacancy rates have all coincided with a house price boom and a run... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank lending on course to rise again Overall bank lending is likely to increase over the rest of the year, but this would not necessarily be a sign of underlying economic strength. We expect business loan demand to rise as the weak... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly End of QE2 won't drive Treasury yields higher With the end of QE2 approaching, it is notable that in the first quarter the Fed absorbed all of the net issuance of Treasury debt and then some. Nevertheless, we still believe it is the stock of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Between a rock and a hard place The Chancellor is stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place. Yes, the fiscal squeeze is stifling the recovery. But abandoning the consolidation would not guarantee that growth prospects would... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Voluntary is the key "v-word" now President Trichet last week stressed again the ECB’s general opposition to a restructuring of Greek debt. But he left the door slightly open to a “voluntary” agreement in which bondholders would... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's Imports of Commodities (May) China’s imports of many key commodities edged up in May compared to April, but they remain below their average level in the first quarter. Imports of copper in particularly have fallen sharply this... 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) At first glance May's labour force survey appears respectable, with 22,300 jobs added and a material drop in the unemployment rate, from 7.6% to 7.4%. The details, however, are not as encouraging and... 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Board not yet ready to heed IMF advice This week the IMF added its voice to those calling for further monetary easing from the Bank of Japan. However, the Policy Board seems more likely to upgrade its own assessment of the state of the... 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rates on hold as the dust settles from Humala's victory The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) unexpectedly held interest rates at 4.25% last night. Nonetheless, if it emerges over the coming weeks that President-elect, Ollanta Humala, will broadly... 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) & Producer Prices (May) April’s industrial production figures were heavily distorted by one-off factors and were therefore not nearly as bad as they look. Still, with the trend in activity slowing and cost pressures still... 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (May) Today’s trade data should go some way to ease fears that China’s economy is heading for a hard landing. Commodity imports remain much weaker than a few months ago but they have recovered slightly. 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
