Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Balance (Apr.) April’s euro-zone trade data do nothing to alter our view that the external recovery in the region has passed its peak. With domestic demand set to remain weak, we expect GDP growth to slow sharply in... 18th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Treasury yields have further to fall We continue to expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to hit 2.5% by year-end. Admittedly, the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing (QE2) draws to a close this month, there are concerns that... 18th June 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Does the Gulf's foreign exchange policy still makes sense? Concerns that the dollar is set to weaken further has reignited the debate on the dollar peg in the Gulf, which if abandoned would allow the region’s central banks to take control of monetary policy... 18th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How far is the slowdown due to supply chain problems? The disruption to Japanese supply chains following the 11th March earthquake has had a big impact on global vehicle production, a drag which is likely to fade over the coming months. But this only... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q2 2011 Businesses feel that demand is slowing while household concerns about inflation have continued to ease. But households are also downbeat about income growth and this seems to be undermining any... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumer sector back in recession Consumer spending has fallen for two quarters in a row, meaning that the household sector is now technically back in recession. Although high street spending picked up in April, that appears to have... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Market rates fall further as economic prospects sour UK interest rate expectations and government bond yields have continued to fall over the last month, predominantly reflecting the continued flow of weak data on the UK’s economic recovery. Rate... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy tightening to come in the Philippines The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) unexpectedly left its overnight rate at 4.5% today, but it did tighten policy settings by hiking its reserve-requirement ratio. Growth in 2011-12 looks set to be... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation still driven by food and energy Headline inflation has remained at uncomfortably high levels across the region, at the same time as activity in industrial and service sectors is beginning to wane. This underscores the policy dilemma... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) As most of the sharp fall in housing starts in April was due to the tornados that battered the south of the nation last month, homebuilding activity will probably bounce back in May. That said, at a... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece on the brink Crunch time appears to be rapidly approaching for Greece. While an additional bail-out package may stave off near-term disaster, a major debt restructuring seems inevitable at some point and Greece’s... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Food price shock still has a little further to run Central bankers – and some in the markets – appear increasingly hopeful that the recent spike in food price inflation, which has driven headline inflation above its target in pretty much every country... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, May) & Employment (Q1) May’s small fall in euro-zone CPI inflation is unlikely to prevent the ECB from hiking interest rates again in July. But with Q1’s weak employment figures supporting our view that domestic demand will... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB strikes a dovish tone As expected, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target unchanged at today’s meeting. With the Bank striking a slightly more downbeat tone in its statement and the Swiss franc’s strength... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (May) June’s UK CIPS/Markit report on services suggested that the recovery in the biggest part of the economy has regained a little momentum. But growth in the sector, and indeed the economy as a whole... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
