Europe Economics Update Euro's unwanted strength heightens break-up dangers Our expectation that the euro would fall against the US dollar as the fiscal crisis deepened has not been borne out and we now expect the euro to stay higher for longer. But this unwanted strength... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The annual growth rate of money, including our own Capital Economics' measure of the M3 aggregate, continued to accelerate in April, mainly in response to the Fed's quantitative easing. But with QE2... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Worse than the Great Depression The sharp fall in house prices in the first quarter provided further confirmation that this housing crash has been larger and faster than the one during the Great Depression. On the Case-Shiller index... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (May) Today's data releases brought more signs of mounting economic weakness and evidence that the upward pressure on inflation is beginning to fade. 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Where would a second bail-out leave Greece? European policymakers will hope that a second bail-out package will provide Greece with more time to show that its fiscal and structural reforms are working. But we are far from convinced and still... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (May) May’s unchanged CPI inflation rate represents just a temporary pause in an upward trend which could take inflation to 5.5% or above. But medium-term influences still point to sharp falls in inflation... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Turkey's post-election policy priorities As the dust settles on last weekend’s parliamentary elections, the immediate priority for policymakers will be to cool an economy that is displaying increasing signs of overheating. This will require... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka's central bank likely to tighten later this year The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept its policy rates on hold today, as expected. Core inflation is low, but current policy settings are very accommodative while the economy is set for another... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People's Bank still in tightening mode The People’s Bank of China has signalled that it remains in tightening mode by responding to the latest high inflation numbers with a reserve ratio hike. 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices (May/Apr) The drop in completed sales in May could be a hangover from the disruption caused by this year’s late Easter and Royal Wedding celebrations. But it could also simply be further evidence of the fragile... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Weaker lending adds to growth concerns Weakening credit growth and a slowing economy present a policy dilemma when inflation is still high. Our view remains that inflation will taper off in the second half of the year and that growth will... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus House Price Indices - What to watch and why For anyone bamboozled by the abundance of house price indices, which can sometimes provide starkly different messages, we consider the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indices to be the most useful and... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How far is Spain from a tipping point? Recent developments suggest that Spain may have started to recouple with the likes of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Over the coming months, Spain is likely to face a number of tricky hurdles and could... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the Turkish economy? Victory in the elections held in Turkey yesterday ensures an unprecedented third term for the Justice and Development Party (AKP). But the positive market reaction, including a stockmarket rally and... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
