Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India hikes again, but not for last time The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to raise its repo rate by 25bp to 7.5% from today was widely expected following the further rise in inflation in May. We now expect inflation to peak at... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Permission-free conversions: a watershed proposal? The government’s proposal for permission-free office/industrial to residential conversions is pretty radical and, relative to what might otherwise have occurred, we estimate that the proposals could... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB strikes a dovish tone As expected, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target unchanged at today’s meeting. With the Bank striking a slightly more downbeat tone in its statement and the Swiss franc’s strength... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing in Canada Speaking in Vancouver today, the Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney admitted that housing valuations are elevated and hinted that if there were a sudden weakening in the housing sector, then... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish inflation - not yet time to worry The surprise acceleration of Polish inflation in May confirm the buoyancy of the economy but reflects mainly the impact of three temporary factors – global food and fuel price inflation and a rise in... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed won't overreact to signs of slowdown We doubt that the signs of a renewed economic slowdown will prompt any knee-jerk reaction from the FOMC at its two-day policy meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (22 nd June). The accompanying... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum and palladium prices have further to fall We expect slowing industrial demand, especially from the automotive sector, to cause the price of platinum to slide from around $1,800 per ounce to a low of $1,500 in 2012. Palladium may be better... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Apr.) April's survey of manufacturers showed that sales fell sharply, down 1.3% m/m, primarily due to disruptions in auto production, caused by parts supply shortages from Japan. Taking into account an even... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for the US dollar We have revised our expectation of a large rebound in the value of the dollar. Although we still think some appreciation against the other “majors” is likely by the end of next year, we now forecast... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean interest rates close to peaking The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) raised interest rates by 25bps to 5.25% last night but signalled that, while more hikes are likely over the coming months, we are now approaching the end of the current... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office yields in Vienna offer some near-term upside potential The Viennese office market seems to be suffering from the weakness of cross-border investment activity in Europe. Nevertheless, the economic fundamentals look sound, suggesting that over the next year... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q1) Financial and business services (FBS) sector jobs rose in Q1, but the year-on-year growth rate slumped and is well below the level that, in the past, has been required to deliver a sustained rise in... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s euro-zone industrial production figures supported the view that the recovery in the wider economy has peaked and that growth may slow quite sharply in Q2 . 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Apr./May) The labour market figures are still giving a bit of a mixed picture about how well the jobs recovery is faring. But the squeeze on real pay is very clear – reinforcing our concerns about the outlook... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
