Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) April’s trade data show that, despite a massive drop in imports from Japan, Canada's trade deficit actually widened. The drop in imports, concentrated in Japan and other OECD countries, was... 10th June 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will Oman's additional spending boost growth? Oman has recently announced significant additional government spending over the previous commitments made in April, which is likely to have an impact on economic growth in the near term. Nonetheless... 10th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB signals July rate hike & stands firm on Greek default ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet struck a hard line on the euro-zone’s debt crisis today by both signalling an interest rate hike in July and again ruling out a debt restructuring for Greece. But on... 10th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) Pretty much all of the sharp fall in the trade deficit in April will eventually be reversed as the temporary effects caused by disruptions from Japan's earthquake fade. Nonetheless, a modest positive... 10th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Lettings Survey (Apr.) It was hardly surprising that surveyors reported another increase in tenant demand in the three months to April. But the rise in the number of new lettings instructions adds to our belief that rental... 10th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold can reach $2,000 even without QE3 Despite receding fears of inflation we believe the price of gold will continue to climb, chiefly spurred by worries about the health of the global economy and sovereign debt. We think gold remains on... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Low rates needed to get recovery back on track With the economic recovery still showing few signs of regaining momentum, the case for raising interest rates is looking weak. Indeed, we think that over the next couple of years renewed quantitative... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to tighten again this year Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its reference rate at 6.75% today, as was widely anticipated. The central bank is still relying on rupiah appreciation to ease the blow from higher commodity prices... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Interest rates hiked, BCB signals more to come The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 12.25% last night. With inflation, which exceeded the Bank’s target range last month, set to rise further, additional increases are... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Apr.) April’s UK trade figures suggested that the big boost to GDP growth in the first quarter from the external sector is unlikely to be repeated this quarter. 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Q1 GDP (2nd Est.) & Consumer Confidence (May) The second estimate of Q1 GDP was essentially unchanged though the contraction in Q4 last year was revised up a notch. This confirmed that the Japanese economy is in recession. GDP will likely... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is London still a seller's market? The strength of demand from overseas buyers is often presented as a reason why London is, and is likely to remain, a seller’s market. But the RICS survey suggests that their influence may be waning... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB trying to hold back the tide The European Central Bank’s continued opposition to any form of sovereign debt restructuring in the euro-zone remains a major short-term obstacle to plans for a Greek debt “rollover”. But the ECB... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates: time to pause The statement following today’s Polish interest rate hike was more dovish than in recent months, highlighting the risks to the recovery and the hope that front-loading monetary tightening will support... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
