Commodities Update OPEC Quotas (Jun.) OPEC’s decision to maintain its current output quotas, rather than raise them, will disappoint many after the encouraging signals from Gulf delegates in the last 24 hours. However, oil production is... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Economic clouds still hanging over Iceland The dust clouds may have cleared but economic gloom continues to hang over Iceland. While the economy returned to growth in Q1, conditions for consumers remain grim and large risks remain over plans... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Warsaw industrial rents continue to lag behind? The recent underperformance of industrial rental values in Warsaw relative to rest of Emerging Europe appears to stem from the fact that consolidation rather than expansion has been a key driver of... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May) The fall in 30-year mortgage rates to a six-month low of 4.5% has not boosted mortgage applications for home purchase as more lenders are asking for a higher down payment at a time when more... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q1) The breakdown of euro-zone Q1 GDP provided some support to our view that the pace of recovery in the region peaked in the first quarter and that growth is likely to be materially slower in Q2 and... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current account, bank lending (Apr.) & EWS (May) Japan’s current account surplus fell further in April, supporting what we already knew about the effect of the disaster on trade. Survey-based evidence suggests things are turning around with... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Economic clouds still hanging over Iceland The dust clouds may have cleared but economic gloom continues to hang over Iceland. While the economy returned to growth in Q1, conditions for consumers remain grim and large risks remain over plans... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is QE3 coming? The run of unexpectedly poor economic data has inevitably led to speculation that the Fed could be forced to adopt QE3. However, there are three reasons why we doubt that the Fed would be willing to... 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Above-target inflation strengthens the case for a rate hike Brazilian inflation rose above the upper band of the Central Bank’s (BCB’s) 4.5±2% target range in May. Inflation is likely to remain above target until the second half of next year. Accordingly... 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The downside risks to agricultural commodity prices The UN’s assessment that agricultural commodity prices are likely to remain “high and volatile” for the rest of this year and into 2012 is perfectly reasonable. However, even if food prices do stay... 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Further signs of a slowdown Further falls in euro-zone leading indicators and the first hard data for Q2 suggest that the economic recovery may have passed its peak. After three consecutive falls, the EC’s Economic Sentiment... 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage approvals slump in April Last month’s housing market news-flow may have been slightly more positive than of late, but it didn’t change the underlying picture of a market that remains severely depressed. And if unemployment... 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's cash rate still likely to be hiked this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.75% today, as expected. The global economy looks to be slowing, but above-trend growth is nonetheless still likely in Australia and there is... 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Plan B worries underline low interest rate outlook The ongoing concerns over the lack of a “Plan B”, should the economy be weaker than the Government’s fiscal plans assume, underline the need for interest rates to stay low for a long time yet. 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
