China Data Response PMIs (May) China’s two PMIs fell in May but at a moderate pace. This is consistent with our view that the ongoing economic slowdown is gentle and unlikely to lead to a hard landing. Meanwhile, price pressures... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr) After a modest improvement in Q1 as a whole, net new lending to commercial property was negative again in April. There has been nothing in the anecdotal evidence or data-flow in recent months to alter... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.) The latest fall in the Bank of England mortgage approvals numbers was surely driven at least in part by April’s one-off events. But underlying demand is clearly still weak. 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manuf. (May) & H'hold Borrowing (Apr.) Today’s manufacturing and household borrowing data provided further evidence that the UK’s economic recovery is now struggling across the board. 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) While Spain has made good progress in reducing its central government budget deficit this year, its growing regional deficits are a cause for concern. Meanwhile, the Greek and Irish deficits are still... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's central bank to continue raising repo rate The Bank of Thailand (BoT) hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 3.0% today, as expected. The economy grew at an above-trend pace at the start of the year, while price pressures should continue to mount in... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can strong growth save the euro? The recent strength of the euro-zone economy has masked widening divergences within the region. And with even in the core economies set to slow over the coming quarters, it would be wrong to expect... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada remains cautious The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning highlighted that ultimately it will raise rates at some point, this year or next year, but even then it said the extent of any policy... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (May) The fall back in consumer confidence in May was most likely due to the combination of the sharp decline in house prices in the first quarter, the more recent flat lining of equity prices, the uptick... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q1) The further fall in house prices in the first quarter means that on the Case-Shiller index prices have now fallen by more than they did during the Great Depression. On that occasion, the peak in... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Worst nearly over but recovery fragile Japanese industry appears to be overcoming the initial disruption caused by the earthquake. Industrial production started to recover in April and is expected to rebound through May and June. The... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's growth is set to ease further, but only temporarily GDP numbers released today show that growth in India eased slightly in Q1 2011. We expect it to fall further in the first six months of this financial year, which runs from April 2011 to March 2012... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Saudi economy manage without foreign workers? The announcement by Saudi Arabia’s government that foreign worker visas will not be renewed beyond six years will be a major blow for the country’s private sector. If the plans are implemented, there... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Apr.) The small gain in house prices in January is unlikely to signal an end to the weakening trend in house prices. Indeed, if our economic forecasts are correct, the downward pressures on house prices are... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland gets off to a solid start of the year Q1 GDP data from Poland show that the economy got off to a solid start in 2011. The twin budget and current surpluses are an ongoing concern. But the country is set to retain its position at the front... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
