UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Apr.) Although April’s late Easter and Royal Wedding celebrations may have depressed mortgage market activity, today’s weak figures are consistent with the struggling economic recovery. What’s more, the... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Output, Income and Expenditure (Q1) The lack of any upward revision to UK GDP in Q1 leaves the economic recovery still looking disappointingly weak. Of course, we are now over halfway through the second quarter. But while high street... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the domino effect hit Belgium? With fears that Spain’s “decoupling” from Greece, Ireland and Portugal may prove temporary, markets may become less sanguine about Belgium than they have recently been. With the political situation... 24th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) The second consecutive strong rise in new home sales in April may even underestimate the recent rebound since the data exclude condo sales, which are probably performing better than sales of new... 24th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Apr.) April’s public finance figures have got the new fiscal year off to a bad start. We continue to doubt that the Government will be able to get borrowing down to meet the fiscal projections this year or... 24th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Final GDP (Q1) & Ifo Survey (May) May’s Ifo survey suggests that Germany’s impressive economic recovery continued in Q2. But with other surveys weakening recently and the GDP breakdown suggesting that Q1’s sharp rise in activity was... 24th May 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China Flash PMI (May) The steady deceleration in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI today supports our view that the current weakness of commodity prices – industrial metals in particular – is fully consistent with... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation still uncomfortably high in Asia April price data show that inflation is highest (and is still rising) in Vietnam while it is lowest in Taiwan. Looking ahead, global commodity prices are likely to put downward pressure on headline... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s strong growth to bring more policy tightening Today’s Q1 GDP data for Thailand show that the economy grew at a faster q/q pace at the start of this year, as expected. Growth in the coming quarters should be supported by strengthening domestic... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rates to edge higher but peak by Q4 Concerns over rising inflation have displaced fears about speculative capital inflows and excessive currency appreciation at the top of the list of policy priorities. Interest rates look set to rise... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan’s central bank looking for fiscal reforms to deliver In a move that was widely anticipated, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) left its policy rate unchanged at 14.0% over the weekend. The upcoming FY2011-12 budget and subsequent fiscal developments will... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Borrowers more exposed than ever to rising rates The low starting point for interest rates, the high share of mortgages at variable rates of interest and the record level of mortgage debt relative to earnings mean that borrowers are more exposed... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Does China face a hard landing? China has been slowing for a while but a hard landing is unlikely. The threat from power shortages is less severe than may first seem and with inflation likely to fade – in part due to slower growth –... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s sharp fall in the flash euro-zone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), driven by developments in France and Germany, brought the strongest signs yet that the core economies’ recoveries are losing... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
