Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates to stay on hold As expected, the Central Bank of Mexico (BANXICO) held interest rates at 4.5% this afternoon. Rising food and energy inflation will test the nerve of policymakers over the coming months, but with core... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What next for oil prices? Despite this week’s partial recovery, we continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent crude to drop back below $90 by the end of the year, as global demand slows, the Middle East risk premium... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (May) May’s unexpected fall in German CPI, which was probably driven by a drop in the core rate, is a welcome sign that inflationary pressures in the region may not be as great as the ECB think. 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (May) On average, respondents to the IPF Consensus still expect all-property capital values to edge lower this year, though the scale of the potential fall has been trimmed. Even so, some forecasters think... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (May) May’s EC business and consumer survey brought further signs that the economic recovery in the euro-zone is starting to lose steam and hence dented hopes that continued strong growth in the core will... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest data show that euro-zone money and credit growth remain subdued. Of course, with headline inflation well above target, this won’t stop the ECB from raising interest rates again over the... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1) Q1’s GDP figures confirmed that Sweden’s impressive recovery continued at the start of this year and will ensure that the Riksbank will continue to raise interest rates at a faster pace than other... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How much will foreign aid help Egypt? Recent reports of a G8 ‘Marshal Plan’, as well as pledges of financial aid and investment from the Gulf, US and Europe, have contributed to a rally in Egypt’s stock market in recent weeks, which has... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response CPI & Retail Sales (Apr.) Japanese consumer price inflation increased in April, rising at its fastest rate in two years. Higher utility and gasoline prices helped push the all items rate of inflation into positive territory... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (May) December’s producer prices figures revealed that cost pressures in the manufacturing sector are continuing to intensify. But this should not prevent consumer price inflation from falling back in the... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Growth remains strong in Emerging Asia Q1 GDP data out so far across Asia confirm that most economies have been growing at or above their trend pace. Strong growth has left little spare capacity in many economies and core inflation... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1 11) Q1’s GDP figures confirmed that Sweden’s impressive recovery continued at the start of this year and will ensure that the Riksbank will continue to raise interest rates at a faster pace than other... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal consolidation will mean slower GDP growth The shift towards fiscal consolidation is another reason to suspect that the US economic recovery will remain muted. We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.5% this year to 2.0% in 2012. In an environment... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How long is healthy profit growth likely to last? US corporate profits expanded at an annualised rate of just over 5% in Q1, following an increase of nearly 10% in the prior quarter. Margins were boosted by renewed downward pressure on unit labour... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would banks cope with a Greek debt "reprofiling"? Some form of Greek debt rescheduling would certainly have rather less severe implications for the euro-zone’s banks than a “hard” default. Nonetheless, were the process badly handled, it could still... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
