Few surprises in Q1 GDP; growth to slow in second half

The raft of Q1 GDP data released earlier this month confirmed that the region’s economies are still expanding, but that the pace of growth remains disappointing, particularly given the depth of the recession in 2009. Romania surprised on the upside, growing by 1.6% y/y – the first quarter of positive annual GDP growth since Q4 2008. Meanwhile, growth in Russia slowed to 4.1% y/y in Q1 (from 4.5% y/y in Q4) despite the recent surge in oil prices. But otherwise most of the rest of the region is growing by around 2.5%-3.5% y/y – well below pre-crisis growth rates of 5% or so.