Commodities Update Oil prices to fall further (and not just because of the IEA) Oil prices have probably overreacted to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) decision to release emergency stockpiles, just as they overreacted (in the opposite direction) to OPEC’s decision to... 25th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jun.) June’s rise in the Ifo index defies other recent evidence that Germany’s impressive recovery is slowing. Nonetheless, we still think that GDP growth will slow quite sharply over the remainder of the... 25th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus The earthquake, electricity and the economy Some of the recent economic data have supported hopes of V-shaped rebound in Japan after the March earthquake. However, power shortages will still hold back the recovery, especially in Q3 when... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Q1 GDP leaves Colombian policymakers with more work to do Data showing that the Colombian GDP grew at close to 8% annualised in the first quarter of this year, despite the impact of the heaviest rains in three decades, adds to recent evidence that the... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What explains the rebound in core inflation? The conventional wisdom is that the rebound in core inflation mainly reflects a permanent rebound in the growth rate of housing costs. However, the pick up over the past few months is more to do with... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) The modest 2.1% m/m decline in new home sales in May shows that homebuilders are still struggling to sell new builds at a time when housing demand remains in the doldrums and there is fierce... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Too soon to turn positive on Irish commercial property Q1’s sharp rise in Irish GDP is not as encouraging as it first seems. Although the external sector appears to be booming, we do not expect this to last. More worryingly, domestic demand continued to... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers stick to their guns The Central Bank of Turkey kept interest rates on hold today and gave no hint that it will resort to more conventional measures to cool an economy that is showing clear signs of overheating. The key... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash PMI (Jun.) The slowdown in Chinese manufacturing signalled by June’s flash PMI was unexpectedly sharp. But the data suggest that price pressures have also subsided. Policymakers should soon have space to loosen... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese demand continues to cool The continued deceleration in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI for June supports our view that commodity prices – industrial metals in particular – have further to fall. There is plenty of... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (May.) May’s rise in the BBA measure of mortgage approvals failed to make up even half of last month’s steep fall. Thus the data seem to confirm that more than just temporary factors have been weighing on... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) The sharp fall in the flash euro-zone PMI in June provides further signs that the underlying pace of GDP growth is slowing, making it increasingly likely that a bout of strong growth will not solve... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed biding its time The statement issued today after the end of the two-day FOMC meeting offered no hint that the recent signs of a renewed economic slowdown might tempt the Fed to launch another round of large-scale... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE investment volumes still on upward trend, but remain subdued The trend for investment volumes among CEE property markets still appears to be upward. However, activity remains well below peak levels and restricted only to a handful of markets, namely Poland... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
