US Employment Report Preview Slowdown sustained Our econometric model suggests that the discouraging 54,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in May was followed by a slightly less disappointing 80,000 gain in June. That may go someway to... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth is unsustainable News that Turkish GDP grew by an above-consensus 11% y/y in Q1 of this year confirms what we already knew – the economy is overheating. 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s slow tightening cycle still has far to go Taiwan’s slow pace of interest rate hikes is likely to continue into next year against a backdrop of strong economic growth and lingering property price concerns. 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Jun.) June’s euro-zone CPI inflation figures are likely to prompt the ECB to maintain a pretty hawkish tone at next week’s press conference. 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) Today’s Credit Conditions Survey suggested that the near-term outlook for commercial property lending may be slightly more positive than in the residential sector. But lending prospects in both... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) & Vehicle Production (May) The latest survey evidence paints a picture of Japan’s economy well on the way to recovery. Much of the disruption caused by March’s disaster has now unwound and production is rapidly being restored... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The latest data show that euro-zone money and credit growth remain subdued, supporting the view that CPI inflation will fall below the ECB’s target as the boost from energy and food subsides. While a... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Credit Conditions (Q2), Cons. Conf. (Jun.) & Pay settlements (May) There was little in the Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions Survey to suggest that bank lending is set to pick up any time soon. 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Running into external headwinds The economies of Emerging Europe are running into external headwinds. The most obvious of these is the deepening sovereign debt crisis in the euro-zone, which, despite the fact that Greece looks to... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (June) The Nationwide house price index was unchanged in June. But the regional indices show that the resilience of the national index over the past year or so is largely down to London where, in contrast to... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Will emerging markets outperform again? The relative valuations of emerging market equities and bonds are no longer as attractive as they have been in the past. But the fears of overheating and hard landings that have held many back so far... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook End of Asia’s policy tightening in sight Policy rates across Emerging Asia are likely to rise further towards pre-crisis levels in the coming months. However,tightening cycles should end next year with rates below their 2008 peaks. Most... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy still slowing The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) signals that the economy slowed further last month. Annual GDP growth may still be around 9% for the current quarter, but momentum has continued to... 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) While plans for a Greek debt roll-over and a second bail-out should ease immediate default concerns and funding pressures, Greece is still struggling to rein in its budget deficit, highlighting the... 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Nordic investment market attractive, but difficult to enter The strength of the Norwegian and Swedish economies is consistent with reports that investment demand for commercial property in the Nordics among international funds is on the up. However, high... 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
