Europe Chart Pack Slowdown broadening The slowdown seems to be broadening to the domestic economy, not only in the periphery but also in the core economies. While activity in the industrial and external sectors has slowed further, surveys... 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates on ice Adding to dovish comments by monetary policy committee members, the statement following today’s decision to leave interest rates on hold in Poland points to a prolonged pause in rate changes. The... 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could rate hikes push China into a hard landing? Today’s benchmark rate increase signals that officials still view inflation as the major near-term threat to China. There will be little direct impact on the economy and the move does not make a hard... 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) It seems very unlikely that the recent easing in the rate at which house prices are falling can develop into sustained and significant price gains at a time when mortgage demand is still in the gutter... 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fresh controls unlikely to signal end of Brazil’s ‘currency war’ News that Brazil is planning a range of new measures to stem the rise in the real hit the currency yesterday but any such action is unlikely to have a lasting impact. 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is rising construction confidence a downside risk to rental values? Rising construction confidence in Europe may be a sign that commercial property developers are gaining in optimism about the outlook for occupier demand and preparing to boost supply pipelines. Yet... 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (June) The bounce in house prices in June is unlikely to signal that the downwards pressure on house prices has abated. With the squeeze on real pay likely to intensify until well into next year, house... 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How much do seasonal factors drive gold? The time of the year is fast approaching when the price of gold is traditionally assumed to be boosted by a seasonal pick-up in demand. We are sceptical that calendar effects can ever be that... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumers bowing under the pressure A raft of negative news from the high street suggests that falling real incomes are taking their toll on the consumer sector. 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s cash rate more likely to rise than fall The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.75% today, as was widely anticipated. A run of poor economic data has prompted market participants to expect that the next move in the cash... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rising interest rates not yet a threat to Swedish property valuations Relative to historic norms and compared to many other markets, property/bond yield spreads in Stockholm seem quite low. However, the above-average outlook for rental value growth suggests that these... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lower loan limits won't be a disaster The scheduled reduction in conforming mortgage loan limits at the start of October is unlikely to trigger a further precipitous fall in house prices as some have suggested. Nevertheless, it certainly... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update A surge in City and West End office rents remains unlikely The latest CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey contained a positive message on job creation. But despite below-average vacancy rates and very limited new supply pipelines in both the City and West End... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) & Final Comp. PMI (Jun.) May’s drop in euro-zone retail sales provided further evidence that the intensifying effects of the fiscal squeeze will leave consumers with little chance of taking up the reins as the external and... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
