Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) Canada's merchandise trade deficit narrowed trivially in May, from C$0.86bn to C$0.81bn. Even so, we still estimate that quarterly net exports were a significant drag on the economy in the second... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) Even though the trade deficit widened in May, to a level last seen just after the fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, it still looks as though net trade made a decent positive contribution to... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The latest on Egypt’s transition The euphoria that accompanied Egypt’s January revolution has given way to the realities of the economic and political challenges facing the country. Overall, we think that the initial expectations of... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to resume rate hikes later this year Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its reference rate at 6.75% today, as expected. Declining headline inflation and greater uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy were the two main factors behind... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can Emerging Europe stay under the radar? In contrast to governments in the euro-zone’s periphery, the economies of Emerging Europe are not facing a solvency crisis. However, large external financing requirements mean the region is vulnerable... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflationary pressures retreat Although one-off factors such as the e.coli outbreak may be behind the sharp drop in prices of seasonal fruit and vegetables in June, today’s CPI data reveal few inflationary pressures in the region... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still (too) optimistic about growth The Bank of Japan today acknowledged that growth prospects for FY2011 will be somewhat lower than it forecast even in April due to the downturn immediately after the earthquake, but it did not think... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Trade (May) June’s better than expected consumer prices figures brought signs that underlying price pressures might be starting to ease and, along with May’s dreadful trade figures, pushed the interest rate... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices (Jun/May) The latest RICS housing market survey provides further evidence that the outlook for activity and prices in the housing market is soft. Even if it is sustained, the slowing in the rate at which new... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Don't fret over expected downward revisions to home sales The expected downward revisions to the number of existing homes sales will not be the disaster widely assumed. Because the house price data will be unchanged, it could even be considered good news as... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Why should the euro-zone crisis worry Egypt and Tunisia? The negative outlook for the euro-zone economies will increase pressure on the economies of Egypt and Tunisia, both of which have been hit hard by political turmoil. The European Union (EU) is the... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How big a worry is the suspension of US aid for Pakistan? The US government announced on Sunday that it has suspended $800m in military aid to Pakistan amid a further deterioration in the relationship between the two countries. The announcement is clearly a... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of commodities collapse China's imports of industrial commodities dropped sharply in the second quarter, indeed by more than they did during the global recession. Imports may well rebound in the second half of the year, but... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can consumers stand the pressure? The economy has been recovering for almost two years, yet many consumers will be feeling worse off than they did during the recession. With the squeeze on real pay likely to intensify even further, we... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No need to panic over inflation surge June's increase in inflation was largely caused by an acceleration in pork prices which is unlikely to last. Non-food prices did not rise at all last month, supporting the view that broad price... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
