China Economics Update How interest rate policy undermines China’s growth Many of China’s smaller companies are struggling as government efforts to control inflation cause their borrowing costs to soar. The solution, as strange as it may sound, is for benchmark interest... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Does the Government need a Plan B? The Government is unlikely to switch to a Plan B incorporating a markedly slower pace of fiscal consolidation unless the economy is very weak or even in recession. Accordingly, the outlook under Plans... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rates should peak this year The recent spike in food inflation has a little further to run and, in most economies, core inflation pressures are building. But even so we still expect headline inflation to start to fall in pretty... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Interpreting China’s steel output China’s steel output may well be higher than the official figures suggest, but the outlook for prices depends on what happens to demand. 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The annual growth rate of our own Capital Economics measure of the M3 aggregate hit a two-year high of 4.9% in June, while the growth rates of both M1 and M2 continued to rise as well. 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How a banking crisis could sink the euro A loss of confidence in the banking system of a euro member country could potentially result in all of that country’s bank liabilities effectively ending up as the liabilities of the ECB. The sheer... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Still fiddling while Rome starts to burn Having pledged to agree on a new rescue package for Greece last week, euro-zone policymakers managed only another vague statement pledging their commitment to “safeguard financial stability” in the... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Businesses poised for employee hiring spree? Businesses are poised for an employee hiring spree, judging by the upbeat second quarter Business Outlook Survey results. Among the firms surveyed from late May to mid-June, the balance of opinion on... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s currency appreciation likely to slow Emerging Asia’s currencies have strengthened against the US dollar so far this year in large part because local policymakers have allowed appreciation to combat inflation. However, with inflation set... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How exposed is the US to European debt defaults? The risk that the US government will default on some of its debt obligations lingered last week as the stand-off over the raising of the debt ceiling appeared to intensify. At the same time, it has... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone crisis casts cloud over UK We now expect GDP growth of only 1% this year (compared to our previous forecast of 1.5%). We still expect growth of only 1.5% in 2012 and think that the economy will struggle to expand by more than 2... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Trying to keep the lights on The government’s plan to “stress test” all nuclear facilities could further delay the restart of currently idle reactors just as we enter the summer period of peak power demand when they are needed... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How high could gold prices go? With the price of gold approaching $1,600 per ounce and hitting new highs this week in other major currencies too, many are asking how high prices could still go. A variety of methods suggests a... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (May) May's survey of manufacturers showed that sales fell more strongly than most expected, by 0.8% m/m. Weaker volumes were behind this drop, mostly due to temporary factors negatively impacting energy... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
