UK Economics Weekly Stress tests underline banking sector fragility Last week started on a relatively poor note for the UK, as the nation’s banks came off rather worse than most others from the European Banking Authority’s recent round of stress tests. Admittedly... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pick-up in GDP growth no thanks to consumers Our calculations suggest that GDP growth accelerated a little to 2.3% annualised in the second quarter, from 1.9% in the first, despite the fact that consumption growth apparently slowed to less than... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the latest rise in net migration another positive for rents? If sustained, the latest rise in net migration should add to the upward pressures on rents over the next few years. But if the increase continues to owe as much to fewer British citizens leaving the... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) May's retail sales are another reminder of the negative effects that high energy and rising food prices are having on discretionary consumer spending. Despite the preliminary data showing strong... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What if the US loses its AAA rating? A downgrade of US government debt would not necessarily be disastrous for Treasuries or the dollar, at least once the dust settled. However, it would be the starkest warning yet that the fall-out from... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jun.) The surprisingly sharp decline in June's consumer price inflation figures reduces the impetus for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates. Although the decline was perhaps somewhat of an overshoot... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) July’s drop in the German Ifo index was another sign that the recovery in the eurozone’s largest and strongest economy is faltering. 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Property investment market volumes remain in the doldrums Investment market activity remained pretty weak in June. Indeed, it was the third consecutive month in which the total value of transactions had been less than £2bn. That had not happened since... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update IEA pledge should help cap oil prices The International Energy Agency (IEA) decided not to announce a further tapping of oil from strategic reserves today after the 30-day review of the release of 60m barrels last month. However, the... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Global risks may delay policy tightening Inflation remains a concern across most of the region. Central banks in Taiwan and Thailand have hiked their policy rates in recent weeks, while the central bank in Malaysia increased its reserve... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Euro-crisis: How big is the contagion threat? The prevailing view that Emerging Europe should be able to avoid contagion from the escalating crisis in the euro-zone could prove to be dangerously complacent. At the very least, strong trade ties... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone PMIs highlight the downside risks to occupier demand This morning’s flash euro-zone PMI release suggests that economic recovery in the region may have ground to a virtual halt. The fact that euro-zone manufacturing output is now barely rising supports... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling real pay taking its toll The continued squeeze on real pay suggests that consumer spending will keep falling for some time. Last week we revised down our forecast for GDP growth this year from 1.5% to 1% and now expect... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The next big move in Brazilian rates will be down The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 12.50% last night. The tone of the accompanying statement suggests that rates may now have peaked, although we wouldn’t rule out... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Have food and energy price rises offset the benefit of rate cuts? The low level of forced selling over the past few years, which has been a key support for average house prices, owes much to the low level of mortgage interest rates. But given the squeeze on real... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
