Global Markets Update Essential points on the US debt crisis The US debt crisis will clearly dominate the agenda in the coming week, so it is worth summarising and expanding on the points we have made so far. In short, we continue to think that the Federal... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (June) Survey evidence pointing to a modest improvement in the property lending market received some support today. Bank of England data showed that net property lending in June reached a two-year high. But... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) & Mortgage Lending (Jun.) We doubt that the rise in the number of mortgage approvals marks the start of a recovery in housing market activity. Hence, with the benefits of low interest rates being relentlessly eroded by the... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q2) Q2’s GDP figures confirm that Sweden continues to expand at breakneck speed. Although growth will ease in the second half of the year, Sweden will remain one of Europe’s top performers. 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q2 11) Q2’s GDP figures confirm that Sweden continues to expand at breakneck speed. Although growth will ease in the second half of the year, Sweden will remain one of Europe’s top performers. 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How would China react to a US downgrade? China may be the US government’s largest foreign creditor but it has no better option than to hope for the best and try to calm any market jitters in the event of a US downgrade. 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to remain in hawkish mode for now At August’s press conference, the ECB is likely to keep its options open over the likely near-term path of interest rates. But given the further decline in business and consumer sentiment and growing... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What would a US downgrade mean for the dollar? The dollar is initially likely to weaken further if the US loses its AAA credit rating. But we would still expect the US currency to rebound and end the year higher against the euro, sterling and yen. 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand’s “insurance cut” to be reversed in September The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has signalled that its policy rate will soon be raised from a post-earthquake emergency level, provided its worst fears for the global economy do not materialise... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Rising layoffs hint at more permanent slowdown The fact that the recent slowdown in jobs growth is mostly due to a rise in firings, rather than a fall in hiring, suggests that a rapid rebound in non-farm payroll employment is not imminent. Our... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Czech retail rental values recover this year? Over recent weeks, the downside risks to our forecasts for a modest recovery in retail rental values in Prague this year have increased. But, if we are right, some of the factors weighing on Czech... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation close to peaking Inflation is close to peaking in most countries in Emerging Europe. Indeed, it may already have done so in Russia. 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update One more rate rise this year in the Philippines The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) kept its overnight rate on hold at 4.5% today, however, it did still tighten monetary policy by raising the reserve requirement ratio. Although inflation is above... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Jun.) Despite holding firm in June, the underlying trend in national average house prices remains negative. Moreover, June also brought tentative evidence that even in London, prices are now softening. 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jul.) July’s fall in euro-zone economic sentiment adds to the evidence of a broad-based economic slowdown. The decline in the economy-wide Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), from 105.1 to 103.2, was... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
