Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB action unlikely to stem the franc’s rise The Swiss National Bank’s decision to cut interest rates to almost zero and embark on a renewed bout of quantitative easing to stem the franc’s appreciation looks pretty bold. But we still think that... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Stalling recovery will keep monetary policy loose The euro-zone fiscal crisis has not been resolved and will continue to act as a drag on euro-zone economic growth. While the prospects for economic growth look weakest in Portugal and Greece, there is... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch QE3 still unlikely, at least until next year As the recent slowdown in economic growth and the rebound in the unemployment rate have come at a time when core inflation has risen rapidly, the Fed is unlikely to announce a third round of asset... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: attention back on the real The slump in Brazilian industrial production in June tips the balance in favour of interest rates being left unchanged (rather than hiked) later this month, and suggests that the tightening cycle has... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strike action at mines distracts from demand woes Concern over ongoing and potential strike action at mines has helped send the price of a number of commodities higher in the past month, especially industrial metals. In our view, the attention placed... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Squeeze on real pay to worsen With the economic recovery still struggling to regain momentum, we have recently lowered our forecasts for consumer spending and GDP growth this year. We now expect a 1.5% drop in real spending. We... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia PMIs fall sharply Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) released over the past two days for India, Taiwan, Australia and Singapore all worsened considerably. Manufacturing across Asia is likely to remain subdued for the... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Four reasons why gilt yields will stay low Gilt yields have fallen sharply since February, with 10-year yields now equal to the 50-year or so low of 2.75% that they reached in March 2009. But there are good reasons to think that gilt yields... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 slowdown a sign of things to come Leading indicators suggest that annual growth slowed in pretty much every economy in the region in Q2 of this year. Unfortunately, rather than being just a temporary blip, we think that this is a sign... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What is holding back mortgage approvals? While restricted credit availability is clearly an important factor, until the pressure on consumer incomes eases and confidence improves, regardless of what happens to credit availability, there is... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Revision to 2011 GDP forecast not due to debt ceiling deal We now expect the US economy to grow by just 2% this year, down from our previous forecast of 2.5%. Growth in 2012 is unlikely to be any better. This downward revision has nothing to do with the... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Earnings fall back even as hours rise Salaries in Japan fell unexpectedly in June, as mid-year bonuses and overtime pay was cut. But as hours worked increase and employment gradually picks up, it seems more workers are working longer for... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Producer Prices (Jun.) The continued slowdown in producer price inflation, combined with July’s unexpected fall in headline consumer price inflation, supports our view that the ECB will probably keep interest rates on hold... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (July) Today’s PMI showed that activity in the construction sector as a whole, as well as in the commercial property sub-sector, continued to grow solidly in July. However, the availability of property... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Intervention increasingly likely as yen strengthens further The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board is unlikely to announce any major monetary policy initiatives at the two-day meeting which concludes on Friday. However, the continued strength of the yen makes... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
