Europe Economics Update France's problems threaten policymakers' firepower Growing concerns about France’s fiscal position have underlined the breadth of the euro-zone’s debt crisis. While a default seems unlikely at this stage, merely a credit rating downgrade would... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update European slump set to harm Czech growth prospects The tumultuous past week in the financial markets has fuelled concerns about the pace of the global, and especially the European, recovery. The Czech economy will be hit harder than most by a slowdown... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much further could the US stock market fall? The S&P 500 has now fallen 17% since its high on 21st July, and plummeted through our long-standing end-2011 forecast of 1,200. If the economic slowdown turns into a recession, we think the index... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Ind. Prod. (Jun.), Trade (Jun.) & BRC Retail Sales (Jul.) The further falls in the markets earlier this morning were followed by yet more disappointing news on the UK’s economic recovery. The recovery was already struggling, but the recent market mayhem has... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s fiscal measures will need to be seen to be believed On the face of it, the response of the Italian Government to the recent market mayhem appears pretty impressive. But we are sceptical as to whether the Government can deliver on its promises. 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus How much further can the Central London office boom run? The fact that vacancy rates are below average suggests that IPD City and West End office rental and capital values will continue to rise for another six to 12 months. But, given the subdued demand... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Jul.) The RICS survey makes dispiriting reading on any level. The latest falls in house prices will further dent confidence among homeowners. However, to date, the falls have done little to help first-time... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (July) Consumer confidence continued to recover in July, reaching its highest level since March. Consumers remain particularly concerned, however, about employment prospects leaving overall confidence some... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Financial market turbulence puts economic growth at risk The possible adverse effects from sharply falling equity prices and lower commodity prices on wealth and confidence have increased the risks that Canada's economic recovery might falter during the... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s slowing inflation makes another pause probable Slowing inflation in Chile raises the probability of a second successive pause at this month’s monetary policy meeting. What’s more, a weakening external backdrop will make policymakers more reluctant... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian governments will continue buying US debt Even before S&Ps downgrade of US debt on Friday, many governments in Asia had been stepping up efforts to diversify their foreign exchange reserves away from US dollars. However, as long as Asian... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Stock market turmoil increases double dip risks The possible adverse effects of the recent sharp fall in equity prices on confidence and consumers’ wealth have increased the risks that the economy starts to contract again. While our central... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Are emerging markets immune? Despite benefiting from generally better fundamentals, no emerging market (EM) is immune from the deepening problems in the US and Europe. Growth everywhere is likely to slow over the next year and... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB purchases may have little lasting impact The ECB’s purchases of Italian and Spanish Government bonds have drawn a very positive initial response in the markets. But there are some good reasons to doubt that it will be sustained. 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What is the outlook for Warsaw office rents? The current, double-digit pace of rental value growth in the Warsaw office market is not sustainable. But despite a large development pipeline, we believe that Poland’s relatively solid economic... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
