Europe Economics Update Could German courts block the bail-outs? The ongoing case in the German Constitutional Court against providing financial support for Greece is unlikely to lead to an outright ban on bail-outs. But the court could insist that Germany is... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bounce in UK equities unlikely to continue The recent fall in UK equities seems a bit overdone relative to the news on the domestic economy. Nonetheless, UK equities may continue to struggle if risks build in the global financial system. 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Aug.) July’s consumer prices figures confirmed that June’s surprise drop in CPI inflation was just a blip. But the fact that the rise last month was driven by a pick-up in the core rate does not mean that... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (July) Today’s trade data for July should ease fears that China’s exports are being hit by slowing global growth. Nonetheless, the increase in the trade surplus underlines the fact that China is not... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Plunging equity markets exacerbate growth risks The recent plunge in equity markets may not necessarily have severe negative consequences for euro-zone growth. But when combined with the region’s other problems it supports our long-held bearish... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US Treasury yields could fall even further The yield on 10-year US Treasuries temporarily plunged below 2.1% after Tuesday’s FOMC statement, before rebounding to around 2.25%. The last time the yield was so low was in early 2009 when the S&P... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities not out of the woods In line with our forecasts, the prices of many commodities have fallen by more than 10% in recent days, with the exception of gold. We continue to believe that the prices of industrial metals and oil... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Q2 GDP likely fell less than expected GDP probably fell in Q2, but not by as much as initially expected thanks to the rapid restoration of supply chains. The direct implications for policy are negligible, and are likely to be overshadowed... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Gulf economies withstand an oil price shock? The drop in the oil price over the past two weeks has led to concerns that the Gulf States will have to scale back their recent spending plans. Admittedly, the current budget commitments are likely to... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How quickly would Asia recover from another global downturn? Fear is growing in Asia over the outlook for the global economy. Although not our forecast, another sharp fall in global output would see Asia hit hard initially. However, as in 2009, Asia’s strong... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's longer low rate pledge won't change much The Fed's pledge to keep interest rates exceptionally low for much longer than previously won't significantly boost the real economy. Admittedly, the chances of QE3 have risen. But the rebound in core... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation rises, but economic activity is weak China's consumer-price inflation remained high in July, while activity data suggest that growth was sluggish at the start of the third quarter. On the face of it, this poses a dilemma for China's... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Market mayhem underlines downside risks to growth The slump in financial markets across Latin America means that valuations now look fairly cheap. But while this could lead to a rally in equities once the panic of the past few days subsides, the... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What's next for the Bank of Japan? The recent slide in the Nikkei and the continued strength of the yen point to the economy and the exchange rate moving in opposite directions, driven by different forces. The policy prescription... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia extends pause amid market jitters Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its reference rate on hold at 6.75% today, as expected. Declining headline inflation and greater uncertainty over the outlook for the global economy were the main factors... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
