Asia Economics Update What to make of Singapore's negative interest rates? Singapore’s short-term swap offer rates (SOR) turned negative last week, prompting questions as to whether this amounts to an implicit policy easing. We think not. The negative short-term SOR is... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Policymakers may be increasingly impotent The recent slump in equity prices is not necessarily a forerunner of a collapse in economic activity. However, the impact of previous episodes of asset price weakness has typically been mitigated by a... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market relief for Portugal likely to be short-lived Market pressure on Portugal has eased over the past weeks. But we remain sceptical that the ECB’s bond purchases and the agreement reached by euro-zone policymakers last month can be a lasting... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth slows in Q2 and worse is to come Today’s Q2 GDP data show that the pace of recovery across the region was slowing even before the recent turmoil in financial markets. With external demand weakening and domestic demand still subdued... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) July’s consumer prices figures confirmed that June’s surprise drop in CPI inflation was just a blip. But the fact that the rise last month was driven by a pick-up in the core rate does not mean that... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2) Q2’s euro-zone GDP figures revealed that the recovery has slowed dramatically. With even the previously healthy core economies now barely expanding, we maintain our far below consensus forecast that... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market hit by weaker economy The failure of home sales to rebound in June after they had been depressed by unusually severe weather may have been an early sign that the recent economic slowdown is restraining housing demand. This... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Growth slowing but not collapsing Peru’s growth rate cooled over the second quarter of this year as weak domestic industry continued to drag on growth and investment suffered from electoral uncertainty. Going into Q3 we expect... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook London's office development pipeline sounds alarm bells Our forecast is that all-property total returns will decline from 15% in 2010 to around 8.5% this year, before easing down to between 6% and 7% in both 2012 and 2013. This subdued outlook reflects our... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What consumers need most is lower commodity prices It is often assumed that the fiscal squeeze is driving the current weakness of consumer spending and that government measures – such as a VAT cut – are all that are needed to get the consumer recovery... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will industrial rents in Belgian and Dutch markets continue to lead? The relatively strong macro drivers of industrial occupier demand in Belgium and the Netherlands are consistent with the fact that industrial rents in Brussels and Amsterdam are outperforming the rest... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Growth to resume in H2, but headwinds linger Japan’s economy contracted again in Q2, despite a faster-than-expected recovery from March’s disaster. GDP should start to expand in Q3 as output continues to recover and reconstruction-related... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will valuations be restored by a period of stable house prices? If the recent pattern of flat house prices and modest income growth were to continue, it would take over a decade for the house-price-to-earnings (HPE) ratio to return to its long-run average. However... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates? Markets have made a dramatic reassessment of the prospects for monetary, judging by the sharp decline in Overnight Index Swaps rates and Canada Government bond yields. In fact, these rates now suggest... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed may yet need more policy tricks If the experiences of the Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan are anything to go by, the Fed's pledge to keep rates low "at least through mid-2013" supports our new forecast that 10 year Treasury yields... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
