US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) The 3.5% m/m fall in existing home sales in July shows that the housing market will not pull the US economy out of its current malaise. In fact, it appears that the recent economic slowdown has... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What next for oil prices? The recent bounce in oil prices, at least prior to today’s drops, had been interpreted by many as strong evidence of underlying tightness in the global market for crude. In contrast, we continue to... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) A further rise in core CPI inflation in the coming months will probably prevent the Fed from responding more aggressively to the economic slowdown and latest market turmoil with a third round of asset... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuelan gold rush a sign that the dollar drought is back The Venezuelan President, Higo Chavez, has announced that he intends to nationalise the country's gold industry and repatriate gold reserves from abroad. With the dollat drought that... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumer spending outlook darkens The outlook for consumer spending is perhaps the gloomiest it has been since the darkest days of the recession. Consumer confidence dropped to near rock-bottom levels in July. It probably even fell... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exports will struggle as global economy stays weak Now that the hard work of restoring shipments to pre-disaster levels is all but complete, Japan’s exporters face an uphill struggle to achieve further growth. Exports had been flat for a year before... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) Ireland’s robust rebound in economic output so far this year does not appear to have meaningfully improved the health of Dublin’s commercial property occupier markets. Although rents may now have... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will refurbishment activity improve further? On IPD figures, there is only patchy evidence of a pick-up in refurbishment activity. Admittedly, by covering only institutional grade property, these data may understate the true extent to which... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Ireland over the worst? There have recently been signs that Ireland’s troubles may be starting to ease, but we still think that it faces a huge challenge to return its public finances to a stable footing. Accordingly, there... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What is the outlook for inflation in the GCC? The recent data show that inflation has either stabilised or started to fall in most Gulf countries over the past few months. And with a fall in food inflation set to outweigh a stimulus-related rise... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: here comes the slowdown Brazilian growth appears to have eased a little in the second quarter of this year and, thanks to a weak end to Q2 and the recent turmoil in markets, looks set to slow yet further in Q3. The question... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update On the road to fiscal union? Decisive steps towards greater fiscal integration across the euro-zone seem vital if the currency union is going to hold together in its current form. But recent comments from Angela Merkel and... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Jul.) The latest regional indicators suggest that the North-South economic divide has continued to widen, with a pick-up in output growth in the South – particularly in London – failing to broaden out to... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does rising credit risk pose a threat to Bunds? The cost of insuring against a default by the German government for five years has nearly doubled since early July and now exceeds the cost of insuring against a default by the UK government for the... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone crisis another headache for Iceland The Icelandic central bank’s surprise interest rate hike today was in stark contrast to the increasingly dovish tone of other central banks around the world. The move reflected a sharp increase in... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
