US Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The sharp widening in the trade deficit in June is a stark reminder that the US cannot rely on a sustained boost from overseas to offset the weak domestic economy. Indeed, today's data open the door... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What more can the SNB do? The Swiss National Bank has not exhausted all options to stem the franc’s appreciation and might yet try capital controls or direct intervention in currency markets. But internationally co-ordinated... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for emerging market markets? In the wake of recent revisions to our end-2011 forecasts for developed market (DM) equities and bonds (see our Global Markets Updates, “How much further could the US stock market fall?” and... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak Russian GDP data a sign of things to come The fact that Russian GDP growth slowed from 4.1% y/y in Q1 to 3.4% y/y in Q2 is particularly worrying since it suggests that the economy was losing steam even before the recent turmoil in financial... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's central bank in wait-and-see mode The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its base rate at 3.25% today, as expected. Volatility in the financial markets and concerns over the outlook for the global economy are likely to keep the BoK on the... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Buy-To-Let Lending (Q2)2 Buy-to-let (BTL) lending bounced back in Q2 from the first quarter’s dip. However, lending is still very subdued compared to pre-recession levels and, in view of the faltering economic recovery, the... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Machinery orders jump but outlook appears weak Core machinery orders, which are a reliable and timely indicator of business capital spending, jumped in June, however businesses expect orders growth to fall away sharply in Q3. This does not... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q2)1 Mortgage possessions and arrears were broadly unchanged in the second quarter. However, taking the year as a whole, given the fragile economic and labour market outlook, it would be a surprise if they... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Interest rates on hold until 2013? The latest Mexican Inflation Report confirms that policymakers are in no mood to begin monetary tightening. The recent global market turmoil underlines that the downside risks to Mexican growth that... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Prime retail property not immune to further consumer spending falls Arguments that further “flight to quality” will insulate the landlords of prime retail property from the effects of a renewed drop in consumer spending have a strong intuitive appeal. But there must... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What more can the SNB do? The Swiss National Bank has not exhausted all options to stem the franc’s appreciation and might yet try capital controls or direct intervention in currency markets. But internationally co-ordinated... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Financial turmoil may undermine economic recovery Should the global economy slow more sharply than even our distinctly bearish global forecasts, then we think equity prices in Canada could slide much further into red territory, as would commodity... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports remain weak China’s commodity imports rose m/m in July, particularly those of copper and soybeans. Overall, this was more a reflection of weak imports in June and to a lesser extent the entire first half of the... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) July’s data show that a slowdown in food inflation helped to ease overall consumer price pressures in Egypt. But core inflation (which is the Central Bank’s preferred measure for setting interest... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Prospects for the other major developed stock markets All the major developed stock markets have taken a battering in recent weeks. On Tuesday, we revised our long-standing, end-2011 forecast for the US S&P 500 from 1,200 to 1,000. Today, we are lowering... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
