Japan Economics Weekly Don’t overestimate the impact of a strong yen The intervention to weaken the yen was only ever going to meet with limited success so long as the forces pushing the currency higher remain intact. That does not necessarily mean that the hollowing... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy stumbles in second quarter The sharp decline in May's GDP was a reflection of several unusually severe weather-related factors that disrupted energy and metal mining production. Although the negative effects on economic growth... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recession risks rising While we think that the chances of another recession are relatively low, the risks are certainly rising. More generally, the recent run of weak economic data and the sharp falls in equity prices... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s debt dynamics worsen Prior to the announcement of the second rescue package for Greece, we noted that anything other than a very decisive response by European policymakers could prompt Italy and Spain to be dragged deeper... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Market mayhem sets gloomy backdrop for Inflation Report The mayhem in the markets last week has set a gloomy backdrop for the Bank of England’s Inflation Report published this week. 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s rollercoaster ride to continue Share prices in Emerging Asia registered losses as worries over the global outlook intensified. However, equities in Emerging Asia fell by less than in other parts of the world. This makes sense given... 8th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Loss of US AAA rating shouldn't be a complete disaster The news that S&P finally pulled the trigger by cutting America's long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+ will surely rock the financial markets when they open on Monday. But any spike in Treasury... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Financial market moves could take 0.5% off GDP growth If the recent financial market moves are sustained, the net effect could be to reduce annualised GDP growth by around 0.5%. That would not tip the US into recession. But it supports our long-held view... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) July's employment report will go some way to reducing fears that the economy is slipping into another recession. But it highlights that the labour market has hardly recovered at all from the recession... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is gold’s sudden drop yesterday a sign of things to come? Amid widespread market turmoil yesterday, the factors which have been driving the price of gold higher caused it to hit an all-time high of just over $1,680 per ounce. Later on in the day, though... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) The small increase in July's employment is not entirely surprising, considering the strong gains over the previous three months. More importantly, the details of the jobs report were fairly... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia’s robust growth highlights overheating risks Today’s Q2 GDP data for Indonesia confirm that growth remained brisk, underpinned by rising commodity exports and resilient domestic demand. We maintain our view that further monetary tightening at... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Equity markets signal trouble ahead for commodities The prices of many commodities have held up comparatively well in the past few weeks, despite the rout in financial markets. Nonetheless, the sharp decline in prices of commodity-related equities... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian & Spanish GDP (Q2) & German Industrial Prod. (Jun.) The latest activity data from the euro-zone support our view that the recovery in the region as a whole is slowing sharply and cast further doubt on whether the likes of Italy and Spain can meet their... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Jul.) The latest batch of producer prices figures showed that cost pressures are finally close to peaking in the industrial sector. 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
