Global Economics Update Global growth continued to slow in July Today’s batch of purchasing managers’ surveys paints a very gloomy picture. Overall, the data are further evidence that the slowdown in global growth is both sharp and broad-based, and suggest not... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply disruptions cause prices to rally Most commodity prices rose in July, especially those which had fallen sharply over the previous two months. This occurred despite weakening demand prospects. Instead, supply-side developments were a... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry still feeling the squeeze A further drop in the PMI manufacturing survey last month suggests that the outlook for Brazilian industry has continued to weaken. Relentless appreciation of the real is squeezing the tradable sector... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the new rescue package solve Greece’s problems? The new details on the second rescue package for Greece that have emerged over the past week or so have not altered our view that Greece’s outstanding debt burden remains unsustainably high. A second... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial production slows to a crawl The latest Manufacturing PMI data suggest that industrial production growth in the region all but ground to a halt in July. 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) July's ISM report was a shocker. The index is not flagging up another recession (at least not yet), but it suggests that the easing in GDP growth in the first half of the year is looking more and more... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.) It is becoming increasingly clear that some of the peripheral economies will struggle to meet their budget deficit targets this year. And the new Greek package, like its predecessors, is unlikely to... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Monetary policy in Pakistan becomes increasingly haphazard In an unexpected move, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) at the weekend cut its main policy rate by 50bp to 13.5%. The cut came despite continued strong inflationary pressures, and follows growing... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Risk of rate rise now pretty low The run of weaker news on the economic recovery has made a near-term interest rate rise even less likely than before. We expect this message to be re-iterated in August’s Inflation Report, published... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Colliers/Real Estate Capital Pricing Survey1Aug The results of the latest Colliers/Real Estate Capital survey were patchy, with expectations for some sectors being upgraded and some downgraded. On balance, we would view this as further confirmation... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jul.) Today’s PMIs signal that China’s manufacturing sector is still weak. Nonetheless, we continue to think that the slowdown in the overall economy has bottomed out. 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Caveat creditor The global financial crisis that began with the banks was only ever temporarily resolved by shifting risks to governments and has now resurfaced in sovereign credit markets. The necessary fiscal... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates close to peaking The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) raised interest rates by 25bps to 4.5% late on Friday night. Strong activity data and rising inflation may prompt some further hikes in the very near term. But... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jun.) & Manu. PMI (Final, Jul.) June’s euro-zone unemployment figures provide further evidence that the labour market is starting to weaken in response to the slowdown in the wider economy. 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jul.) July’s CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing suggested that the industrial sector is continuing to contract, pouring cold water on hopes that a sustained recovery in manufacturing can offset weakening... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Vehicle Sales (July) The dip in domestic vehicle sales in Japan in July looks like a speed bump on the road to recovery rather than anything more serious. Overall, the auto sector is rapidly getting back to normal with... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
