US Economics Weekly Downgrade, default or both? Even if the politicians finally get their act together and agree a deficit reduction package, the resulting spending cuts may not be large enough to appease the credit rating agencies. As such, we... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a US default mean for Asia? Policymakers across the region are rightly concerned about the potential consequences of a debt crisis in the US. We believe that the impact on Emerging Asia’s economies of a one or two notch... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Spending slowdown more abrupt than desired The soft patch in household spending may be more than just a blip, judging by the negative effect high energy prices and rising food prices are having on underlying retail sales. Although we... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to make of a strong yen The recent strength of the yen has raised the prospect of exchange rate intervention from the Japanese government. We think this is unnecessary and, worse, would probably be ineffective. The yen has... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly After the weak Q2, a poor start to Q3 Q2’s meagre 0.2% rise in GDP means that the recovery still looks even weaker than that seen after the Great Depression. Of course, there is a lot of uncertainty about how much effect the various... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slowdown spreads to Germany Data last week brought perhaps the firmest signs yet that the slowdown in euro-zone economic activity has spread to the region’s core. With exports weakening in response to slowing world demand and... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Default seemingly averted, but downgrade almost certain The latest noises from Washington suggest that politicians are close to reaching a compromise on a deal that will raise the debt ceiling ahead of Tuesday night, thereby preventing a debt default and a... 1st August 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q2) The poor economic climate, the double dip in house prices, the high number of foreclosures and tight credit conditions are all reasons why the homeownership rate will continue to fall. The flipside... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Belgian GDP (Q2) Q2’s flash Belgian GDP figure, the first release from a euro-zone economy, revealed that the economy expanded at a pretty strong pace. But this does little to change our view that growth in the euro... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The disappointing 1.3% annualised rise in GDP in the second quarter and the downward revision in the first quarter suggests that economic growth for 2011 as a whole may fall short of our 2.5% forecast... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) Broad money and lending growth remained exceptionally weak in July, suggesting that nominal GDP growth is likely to ease back in time. The case for more quantitative easing is getting stronger. 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery on track as outlook brightens There was further evidence today that the recovery in Japan was broadly on track at the end of Q2. Although the labour market remains weak, and power shortages continue, businesses are optimistic... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: At the mercy of oil prices Fiscal profligacy and a lack of prudence in managing commodity revenues have left Ecuador highly exposed to a downturn in global oil prices. Limited financing options are likely to turn up the heat on... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Despite a weak global economy, the Gulf is set to grow The high oil price and increased production will ensure continued healthy revenues in the oil-rich Gulf States. As a result, government spending is likely to increase further, which will ensure that... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jul.) July’s euro-zone flash consumer prices figures came as something of a pleasant surprise and provide some support for our view that the ECB may not raise interest rates again over the coming months. 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
