US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales (May/Jun.) May's Case-Shiller house price index suggests that the five-year-long decline in house prices may be more or less over. But with June's new home sales data confirming that housing demand remains... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India hikes and remains hawkish The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised markets with a 50bp rate hike today, lifting the repo rate to 8.0%. With the accompanying policy statement reinforcing the RBI’s hawkish policy stance, we now... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary GDP (Q2) Q2’s GDP figures show that the economy is still barely growing. Admittedly it is hard to know how much growth suffered from the various temporary factors dragging on output in the quarter. Nonetheless... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (July) Japan’s small firms continued on the road to recovery in July following the collapse in confidence in the aftermath of March’s disaster. Conditions improved significantly compared to June as supply... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Back from the brink, for now The positive market reaction to the Greek rescue package is not without some justification. After all, following the dithering and disagreement of recent months, it would not have been a shock if... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Which measure of employment is right? There has been a striking divergence between the two main measures of employment recently. But regardless of which is painting the more accurate picture, the labour market outlook remains poor. 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What if the US defaults? We still think that the US government is unlikely to default on its debt. But if it did, the implications would potentially be far more serious than those that would follow a one or two notch... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update High inflation in Singapore will not bring more MAS tightening The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) revised up its 2011 inflation forecast last week while data out today show that inflation rose in June. Nonetheless, talk of runaway price pressures looks... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth set to slow sharply Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to suspend its daily purchases of US$ should help to stabilise the lira in the very near term. But it does not tackle the underlying concern, namely... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (June.) Despite June’s rise, mortgage approvals have remained broadly flat over the past year. With the squeeze on household incomes unlikely to ease anytime soon and with few signs of looser lending... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update End of the road for German industrial yield compression? We suspect that Q2’s fall in yields may mark the end of the road for the German industrial investment market recovery. As our fears of a rapid slowdown in the manufacturing recovery are borne out... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Interest rates to rise in the Philippines The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) will announce its latest policy decision on Thursday. As with elsewhere in the region, the BSP faces a dilemma as it looks to keep inflationary pressures under... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly No escape from deflation Reports of the death of deflation in Japan have been greatly exaggerated. Inflation has only temporarily turned positive, largely as a result of higher commodity prices and base effects in the annual... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Headwinds, tailwinds and monetary policy The key message in the July Monetary Policy Report: short term interest rates will remain unusually low for a considerably lengthy period. In a technical box towards the end of the report, the Bank... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
