Europe Commercial Property Update Are German office yields too low? The recent flow of bad news on the German economy might suggest that the office market is beginning to look expensive. Yet, office/bond yield spreads are nearly as high now as they were at their peak... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Braced for an outright fall in payrolls There is a real danger that the recent economic slowdown and financial market turmoil resulted in non-farm payroll employment falling outright in August, perhaps by around 25,000. That would be the... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Beware the LME stocks data Stocks held on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have traditionally been seen as a barometer of the overall balance between supply and demand in the base metal markets. As such, the recent increase in... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Overseas examples suggest VAT cuts costly and ineffectual Given that the £75bn of asset purchases announced in October has not been completed yet, today’s decision by the MPC to leave policy unchanged was unsurprising. However, the Committee has sent some... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Signs of summer growth revival The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) signals that economic growth picked up in the last couple of months, supported by rapid growth in construction. 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's public finances not as strong as they seem At first sight Russia’s public finances appear a picture of health when compared to those in the developed world. But a growing dependence on high and rising oil prices as a source of revenue is a... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s inflation to bring more policy tightening August price data highlight growing concerns over the stubbornly-high rate of inflation in Vietnam. Despite the backdrop of a weak global economy, we believe that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Market rout focuses attention on risks to growth Financial markets in Latin America suffered heavy losses during the recent global market turmoil, extending their poor performance so far this year. Equity markets fell by around 15% amid a widespread... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Expectations of QE3 appear premature In his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is unlikely to fulfil the markets’ hopes that he will pave the way for a third round of asset purchases (QE3). And even if he did... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgium's political crisis yet to take its toll Belgium’s severe political deadlock seems to have done little harm so far. But the political crisis is still preventing crucial fiscal tightening from being implemented. The deadlock is also delaying... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand's tightening cycle to end this year In spite of growing downside risks to global growth, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its repo rate by 25bp to 3.5% today. The BoT’s decision-making is being heavily influenced by the outlook for... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Two (very different) scenarios for the yen Japan’s government appears to have changed course and dropped its attempt to weaken the yen in favour of mitigating the impact of a strong currency. For now we are sticking to our view that the yen... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Encouraging private sector investment should be part of any Plan B Creating more favourable conditions for private sector investment is just one of the ways in which the Government could help the economy to survive the fiscal squeeze without actually rowing back on... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Jul.) July's durable goods orders data are not good as they might look. Nonetheless, they still suggest that business investment may accelerate in the third quarter. This supports our view that third... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodity prices to drop back on QE3 disappointment Not for the first time, commodity prices have been propped up by hopes of additional monetary stimulus from the Fed. However, we doubt these hopes will be realised anytime soon. What’s more, even if... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
