UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (July) After some mildly encouraging figures over the first half of 2011, net new lending to commercial property fell back into negative territory in July. Against the backdrop of a sluggish economy and the... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth and inflation: where next? We have revised our Japan GDP and inflation forecasts out to 2013 but still expect a full-year recession in 2011. The smaller than expected contraction in second quarter GDP suggests that the rebound... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Halfway through a lost decade By the end of this year, it will be five years since the housing bubble burst. Given that the economy is likely to grow by no more than 2% this year, the US is only halfway through a lost decade. What... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India's growth to regain traction by year-end India’s Q2 GDP data will be released on Tuesday and are likely to show that growth slowed. We forecast growth of 7.5% y/y in Q2, down from 7.8% in Q1. Monthly output data suggest that the slowdown... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Where's the economy headed? Most analysts now agree that the Canadian economy stumbled in the second quarter, but we think that the current quarter will be better. A rebound from several unusually severe weather-related factors... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Bernanke fails to send any new signals on monetary policy 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the manufacturing sector past the worst? Hopes were raised last week that the manufacturing recovery, which had been slowing since the spring, might have regained a bit of pace in August. We are not so convinced, however, that the... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Collateral squabble casts doubt on Greek bail-out This week, the markets’ focus has fallen back on Greece. In addition to long-standing doubts over whether a sufficient number of private-sector creditors will sign up to the Greek debt exchange scheme... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke provides no clues on chances of QE3 In his speech at Jackson Hole, Chairman Ben Bernanke provided no real clues that the Fed is building up to more policy stimulus, such as QE3. In fact, he placed more onus on the politicians to help... 27th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Jul.) July’s rise in house prices is the largest month-on-month rise since early 2010. However, prices remain well below pre-crisis levels. Moreover, with the squeeze on household finances set to continue... 27th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP 2nd Estimate (Q2) House prices are likely to end 2011 in line with, or marginally lower than, last year. That will do little to alleviate the extent to which housing is overvalued. Against this backdrop, and with the... 27th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Recent signs of growing stresses in the euro-zone banking sector support our view that credit growth will remain subdued at best and that household spending and investment will grind to a virtual halt... 27th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Final, Q2) The final GDP figures from Spain confirmed that its recovery remained sluggish in Q2 and did nothing to alter our view that the economy may tip back into recession before too long. 27th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Supply-chain disruptions temporarily hit growth Q2 GDP figures reported so far within emerging Asia have tended to be weak, with some analysts suggesting that sluggish growth in the US and euro-zone have stalled growth in Asia. This seems premature... 27th August 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian rates to stay on hold for the foreseeable future There were no surprises from Egypt’s Central Bank today as the benchmark interest rate was left unchanged at a record low of 8.25%. With the economy still weak, and core inflation (the bank’s... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
