Bank of Canada Watch Bank's downside risks are being realised It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, considering the slight contraction in second-quarter GDP and evidence... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Is the ECB about to turn? The ECB is likely to soften its tone markedly at this month’s press conference amid signs of a significant deterioration in economic activity. With inflation risks probably no longer deemed to be on... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) Most of the peripheral economies have continued to make progress in reducing their government borrowing. But over the past month, the euro-zone debt crisis has spread further to the core economies... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More gloomy news on regional manufacturing August’s PMI surveys brought further evidence – if any were needed – that industry in Central and Eastern Europe is slowing sharply. Given that this has been the main driver of growth over the past... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian rates? After last night’s surprise 50bps cut in interest rates, further monetary easing in Brazil will depend on how events elsewhere in the global economy play out. We doubt that rates will be cut as... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Aug.) China’s PMIs are both signalling that conditions in manufacturing improved last month. In each case, the rebound is small. But at a time of uncertainty about the outlook we would take some reassurance... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Aug.) August’s CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing brought further evidence that the slowdown in the global economic recovery is starting to hit the UK manufacturing sector hard. 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Strong Swiss franc starts to hurt Swiss GDP data show that the economy held up relatively well in Q2, but exports have already begun to fall. As the Swiss National Bank struggles to prevent a renewed appreciation of the franc, the... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Minimal threat of office supply shortages in CEE The rapidly slowing trend in CEE office completion volumes seen over the past couple of years looks set to be extended next year. But this does not imply that the region will face a shortage of office... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Aug.) August’s drop in average house prices may be little more than noise in the broadly flat trend seen in recent months. But with the recovery faltering and consumer confidence weakening it could also... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Strong Swiss franc starts to hurt Swiss GDP data show that the economy held up relatively well in Q2, but exports have already begun to fall. As the Swiss National Bank struggles to prevent a renewed appreciation of the franc, the... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets positioned for feeble recovery The last quarter has seen UK markets respond to signs that the economic recovery is slowing as well as fears that policymakers are relatively powerless to provide additional monetary or fiscal... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) We are wary of reading too much into CoreLogic's fairly optimistic house price report for July, which showed that seasonally adjusted prices fell by just 0.1% m/m, when prices have yet to respond to... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2011) Despite the slight contraction in second-quarter GDP, by 0.4% at annualised rates, we estimate better growth is in store this quarter. A rebound from several unusually severe weather-related factors... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth slowdown in the Philippines to be short-lived The Philippines is the latest country within emerging Asia to report weak Q2 GDP data. Nonetheless, as with elsewhere in the region, growth should rebound in coming quarters as temporary supply-chain... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
