US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The sharp decline in the trade deficit in July is one more reason to believe that annualised third-quarter GDP growth will come in around 2.5%. With global demand clearly weakening, however, the... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish industrial rental downturn has further to run July’s fall in Spanish industrial production extended the recent run of disappointing manufacturing data. The deteriorating outlook for occupier demand suggests that take-up levels will remain at very... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Transactions may bear the brunt of any drop in risk appetite The recent outperformance by lower grade London offices is unlikely to be repeated in the near-term by secondary property in other sectors. Indeed, over the coming quarters, it is more likely that... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent to fall to $85 per barrel in 2012 The factors that we had thought would undermine oil prices over the course of the year have been gradually falling into place, namely slower growth both in advanced and emerging economies, a reduction... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Greek and Portuguese GDP (Final Q2) & German Trade (Jul.) The Greek and Portuguese GDP figures for Q2 add to evidence that the recessions there will be more drawn out than either Government expects, suggesting that both economies will struggle to meet their... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Case for more QE strengthening The MPC’s decision to re-launch its quantitative easing programme today confirms that the Committee finally recognises that the major threat to the UK is renewed recession, not inflation. But previous... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Concerns about Italy to resurface The Italian Government’s recent indecision over the form of its latest fiscal package underlines the view that it is unlikely to implement the tough and unpopular measures needed to get the public... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response EWS (Aug) & Machinery Orders (Jul) The renewed falls in confidence revealed in the latest Economy Watchers’ Survey and the decline in machinery orders add to other recent evidence that Japan’s recovery is now faltering again after the... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Risk of a return to recession grows Developments over the past month suggest that there is a distinct possibility that the eurozone could soon slip back into recession. In particular, the ECB composite PMI now points to outright falls... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update The disappearing case for rate increases Considering the contraction in second-quarter GDP and evidence of slowing global economic growth and rising financial risks, it is not a surprise to anyone that the Bank of Canada kept its policy... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Polish interest rates likely to be down The Polish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold comes as little surprise given the recent signs of a domestic slowdown and lower demand from abroad. With inflation set to ease... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) The latest mortgage applications figures illustrate how ultra-loose monetary policy is failing to boost economic activity. Despite the fall in 30-year mortgage rates to within a whisker of a record... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s surge in German industrial production will clearly ease fears of an imminent double-dip, but a renewed industrial slowdown seems inevitable before long. 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s growth momentum looks resilient Economic growth rebounded strongly in the second quarter, strengthening our view that Australia’s recovery is intact despite the fall in output in Q1. Worries about the global outlook obviously add... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia HSBC/Markit PMI (Aug) August’s PMI data show that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector grew at its slowest rate since the beginning of 2010. What’s more, the output component hit a record low last month. However, despite... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
