Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Aug.) August’s PMI data were disappointing, showing that the UAE’s non-oil private sector expanded at its slowest pace since May 2010. More worryingly, output was flat from the previous month. Meanwhile... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German court ruling points to troubles ahead Today’s ruling by the German Constitutional Court that bail-outs already undertaken by EU authorities were not unlawful might come as a relief to highly indebted euro-zone governments. But its... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) We think consumer price inflation probably rebounded a touch last month, but still expect it to drop below 5% by the end of the year. As it does, policymakers are likely to start loosening controls on... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s budget black hole filled only temporarily The Hungarian government yesterday afternoon announced measures to raise an extra HUF 100bn in revenues as lower than expected growth reduced the chances of meeting the budget target. The government... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Aug.) With all of the house price data relating to August released so far reporting month-on-month falls, the evidence of renewed weakness in prices is building. Admittedly, it is too early to draw firm... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece at risk of an imminent default? In the near term, Greece may continue to receive EU/IMF support and grudgingly meet the terms of its bail-out, despite the ongoing problems surrounding the second rescue package. But it is virtually... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Are the Gulf States at risk from their exposure to the US? We think that the much-reported risks to the value of the foreign assets held by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from the US economic troubles are overstated. Admittedly, the hydrocarbon... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Double-dip risks grow The economic data have weakened markedly and across the board over the last month. A weighted average of the CIPS surveys is now consistent with GDP falling on a quarterly basis again. Low consumer... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How serious is the global downturn? The latest purchasing managers’ surveys suggest global economic activity remained very sluggish in August. Although the figures do not point to an outright fall in world GDP, they are consistent with... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline inflation probably declined in August. It may rebound in September but is likely to have dropped to 5% or lower by the end of the year. This would remove a significant barrier to further... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Troubles mount for Pakistan’s crisis-hit economy A combination of increasing political violence in Karachi, falling cotton prices, an unsustainable fiscal position and high inflation mean the outlook for Pakistan’s fragile economy remains bleak. 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: IMEF manufacturing survey not as promising as it seems While the Mexican IMEF manufacturing index bucked the global trend and increased in August, there is no hiding from the weak outlook for the economy. With GDP growth set to disappoint, we expect... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation edges further above target Data released this afternoon confirm that Brazilian inflation rose further above the central bank’s target in August. The news will do little to calm fears that, following last week’s surprise... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How significant is the collapse in house prices in terms of gold? Taken at face value, the seven year decline in house prices expressed in gold might suggest that, relative to the precious metal, house prices are now ripe to recover. Yet in reality, we don’t think... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack CEE markets still outperforming, but outlook is cloudy In contrast to Western European property markets, investment volumes in CEE have continued to rise. But the latest batch of disappointing economic data from Emerging Europe suggests that investor... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
