The economic data have weakened markedly and across the board over the last month. A weighted average of the CIPS surveys is now consistent with GDP falling on a quarterly basis again. Low consumer confidence continues to point to falls in real household spending. And demand for UK exports appears to be fading rapidly. As a result, while we still expect virtually no growth in GDP in the remainder of this year – and annual growth of just 1% in 2011 as a whole – the downside risks to even our gloomy forecasts have grown and the chances of a double-dip have increased significantly.
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