Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt needs the IMF to avoid an external funding crisis Fresh concerns that Egypt could face a fiscal and external funding crisis over the next three years have pushed the country back to the IMF. In June, Egypt turned its back on offers of help from... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rates to remain on prolonged hold The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left its key interest rate at 2.5% today, as anticipated, citing the deterioration in external conditions and escalation in financial market risks. The RBNZ... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) August’s retail sales figures provided further evidence that high inflation is killing off any hope of a recovery on the high street. 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Aug.) None of the regions of the UK were immune from the severe economic slowdown in August. Meanwhile, public sector job cuts have hit the South West and North East particularly hard. 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would “Operation Twist” mean for commodities? Any further easing from the US Fed will probably be limited to lengthening the maturity of its existing holdings of Treasury securities (“Operation Twist”) rather than a third round of outright... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Cash buyers and investors take fright Even though mortgage rates have fallen to record lows and housing has become more undervalued relative to incomes than ever before, the number of home sales has continued to decline. More striking is... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Operation Twist offers best hope among limited options Given the weakness of the incoming economic data, the Fed is now almost certain to do something at next week's FOMC meeting, but exactly what is still not entirely clear. The proposal to lengthen the... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s data show that the drop in food price inflation has helped to offset the impact of rising housing costs in Saudi Arabia. Since the food component accounts for a quarter of the consumer price... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Aug.) The stagnation in retail sales in August suggests that households became more cautious after the plunge in equity prices towards the start of the month. Sales may also have been dampened by Hurricane... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Jul.) On the face of it, July’s healthy rise in euro-zone industrial production suggests that near-term growth prospects may not be quite as bad as the business surveys have recently suggested. Nonetheless... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Jul./Aug.) September’s unexpectedly sharp rise in headline CPI inflation from 4.5% to 5.2% came as a bit of a nasty surprise. But the key point is that inflation is very close to a peak and should soon start to... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q2) Financial and business services (FBS) sector employment edged lower in Q2, which reinforces the downside risks to Central London office rental values. For now, supply constraints should see further... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia prepares for global downturn Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to lower its overnight repo rate and at the same time raise its overnight deposit rate is an attempt to wrest back control over market interest... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts – even lower Treasury yields ahead We have reviewed our projections for currency, government bond and stock markets. The new market numbers are presented in the table on the next page. There are two main changes. First, we are revising... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
