US Economics Weekly Rebound in core inflation makes Fed's life difficult The marked rebound in the rate of core inflation since late last year is one of the key reasons why Fed officials are more wary of implementing further quantitative easing now. Some of the recent... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Heading for another recession Last week proved to be another rollercoaster week for Greece. We now think that the Government may end up defaulting within months or perhaps even weeks. With concerns about banks’ solvency likely to... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Some encouraging signs on inflation Last week saw a slew of news on inflation which seemed to suggest that, while it is still on course to rise over the next few months, it will drop sharply next year. Indeed, the softness of medium... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India near the end of policy tightening The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised its repo rate by 25bp to 8.25% today, as anticipated, citing further increases in core inflation. Provided the euro-zone crisis does not escalate dramatically in... 17th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Real retail rental value correction on track to be largest ever In recent months, retail property rental value trends – which were already pretty weak – have taken a turn for the worse. What’s more, the recent data-flow, such as weak retail sales and problematic... 17th September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How stressed out is the euro-zone banking sector? Thursday’s pledge by the European Central Bank (alongside similar commitments from the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank) that it will offer 3m US dollar funding over year-end... 17th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling employment intensifies consumers’ misery The near-term outlook for consumer spending looks exceptionally weak. Surveys suggest that job cuts in the private sector will gather pace in the coming months. Consumer confidence fell in August from... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Widening refinancing scheme won't help much Any changes to the Administration's current program that would allow more households to refinance their mortgage at a lower rate would be welcome. But such moves won't provide a major boost to the... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response CPI & IP (Aug.), Philly Fed & Empire State (Sep.) The continued rise in inflation in August, which saw both headline and core CPI inflation hit two-year highs, is another reason to suspect that the Fed will shy away from a further round of full-blown... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jul.) July's survey of manufacturers showed that sales outpaced market expectations by a wide margin. Most encouragingly, stronger volumes were behind this increase, reflecting the ongoing recovery in auto... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay’s slowing growth to continue for a while yet Uruguay’s economy slowed in Q2 as a deteriorating trade balance weighed on growth. While weaker external conditions mean that growth will cool further over the next year, relatively solid fundamentals... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Here comes the slowdown The deepening crisis in the euro-zone reinforces our view that growth in Emerging Europe will slow by more than most expect over the next year. We expect the region’s economy as a whole to expand by... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2011 Households in China are expecting consumer prices to continue rising rapidly. But with businesses reporting weakening demand, falling capacity utilisation and rising inventories, that could soon... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final CPI (Aug.) & Employment (Q2) The latest euro-zone CPI inflation data do nothing to alter our view that underlying price pressures are not as strong as the ECB fears and that official interest rates may fall around the turn of the... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s inflation inaccuracies underlie deeper economic ills Official statistics continue to drastically underreport inflation in Argentina, resulting in a number of serious economic distortions. Building pressures on the regime make a recession probable... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
