US Economics Update Fed action will do little to boost economy Operation Twist is a go, albeit with a small twist on the twist. The Fed's announcement today that it will act to extend the average maturity of its Treasury holdings, by buying $400bn of securities... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does Thailand’s rice scheme mean for global prices? Thailand, the world’s largest rice exporter, is set to introduce a generous price floor for local rice farmers, fuelling speculation that global rice prices are about to surge. However, we expect any... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) Given the recent sharp falls in equity prices and consumer confidence, there is a real risk that the 7.7% m/m rise in existing home sales in August will not be sustained. Without a significant surge... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Corporate bonds vs. corporate equities US credit spreads have widened significantly since the end of July. However, corporate bonds have outperformed equities during this period – something we expect to continue over our forecast horizon... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The big picture on emerging market currencies The recent sharp falls in emerging market (EM) currencies against the US dollar do not reflect fundamental shifts in exchange rate policy in these countries. Instead the main driver is renewed demand... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Lessons from the Fall of the Wall The vast bulk of growth in Emerging Europe since the fall of communism can be explained by the better allocation of resources that has resulted from the transition from central planning to a market... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) The stronger than expected increase in headline CPI inflation, from 2.7% to 3.1% in August, primarily reflects transitory factors and therefore is of little consequence for the Bank of Canada. More... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Growth forecasts revised down; recession risks rising The recent weakness of the news on the domestic economy and the deterioration in the overseas outlook – particularly in the euro-zone – has made us concerned that even our bearish forecasts for UK GDP... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exports struggle with weak global economy & strong yen Japan’s exporters face an uphill struggle for further growth due to the strong yen and slowing global economy, while imports are climbing due to Japan’s energy needs. Nonetheless, net trade is likely... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Sep.) & Public finances (Aug.) The minutes of September’s MPC meeting strongly suggested that QE2 will be launched soon, while August’s public finances threw more doubt on the fiscal plans. 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have Hungarian retail yields fallen too far? The recovery in Hungary has disappointed in recent months and economic growth is likely to remain lacklustre in 2012 and 2013. That represents a downside risk for commercial property, but especially... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The privatised utilities are one route to higher investment Attention has focussed in recent days on the wiggle room in the current fiscal plans for greater than currently planned public sector investment. But the Government could also boost investment without... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Euro-zone crisis leaves more upside for gold Gold’s spectacular rise over the past decade has seen its price climb from $256 per ounce in 2001 to more than $1,900 at its recent peak. After such a long bull market and some large daily falls in... 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Sep.) September’s drop in the German ZEW index is another sign that the economy is suffering increasingly from slowing global demand growth and troubles in the eurozone’s periphery. 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Heading into choppy waters The economies of Latin America are likely to slow by more than most expect over the next year. We do not anticipate a prolonged downturn, but the marked deterioration in the external environment means... 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
