China Activity Monitor Growth stabilising The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) signals that growth has stabilised over the last three months, albeit at a much slower pace than China has been used to. 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets battered as euro-crisis deepens The past couple of days have seen a rebound in the region’s financial markets, but this has reversed only a fraction of the losses seen over the past month. Most equity markets, for example, are still... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How long will debt-laden Japan be able to avoid her own crisis? 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Does Ireland’s recovery provide hope for Southern Europe? The news that Ireland expanded robustly in the first half of the year, might suggest that the Southern European economies may reap similar rewards if they stick with plans to cut their budget deficits... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence, which was pretty much unchanged in September, shows that households are just as downbeat as they were last month. With equity prices hardly off... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update 2012 copper price forecast lowered to $6,000 Copper prices have been a major casualty of the recent sell-off in commodities and have already dipped below our long-held forecast of $7,500 per tonne for 2012. Prices may well bounce in the coming... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will the end of the stamp duty holiday signal a surge in transactions? Previous experience suggests that a 20-40% increase in transactions in the final months of the stamp duty holiday is possible. However, given that only first-time-buyers (FTBs) are eligible for the... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul.) The 0.1% m/m rise in Case-Shiller 20-City house prices in July is unlikely to mark the start of a sustained and significant recovery in prices. We still expect prices to fall back a bit later this... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Just how safe is the yen? As the euro-zone debt crisis continues to send shockwaves through the financial markets, it is ironic that the best performing of the world’s major currencies so far this year has been the yen. After... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response SME Business Confidence (Sep.) Confidence amongst small and medium sized businesses is back to the level it was before March’s disaster. Economic conditions are generally improving, although firms remain concerned about their... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slowing GDP growth unlikely to derail Polish investment market revival Our sub-consensus view that Polish GDP growth will slow to about 2.5%y/y in 2012 might suggest that the recent surge in commercial property investment activity could lose momentum. However, even if... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Despite renewed hopes that euro-zone policymakers will adopt radical measures to solve the region’s debt crisis, we expect stresses in the banking sector to remain, increasing the chances of the... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Can hotels weather the consumer spending slump? By contrast with the track record of outperformance, we expect hotel property total returns to average about 7% p.a. over 2011-13, below the all-property figure of about 8%. 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) In a month when both equity prices and confidence plunged and fears of another recession soared, the 2.3% m/m decline in new home sales in August could have been much worse. Nonetheless, in the... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Increasing female participation in Saudi could boost growth Saudi Arabia’s move to allow women to vote (and run) in municipal elections, and to be appointed to the Shoura Council, is an important and positive political move. But the economic benefits are... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
