BoE Watch UK MPC Watch - QE2 on the slipway With the news on the UK and global economies continuing to deteriorate, it is now a question of when, rather than if, the Monetary Policy Committee will restart its quantitative easing (QE) programme... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil industry sliding into recession This afternoon’s PMI survey data from Brazil suggest that the industrial sector is sliding into recession. In this context, we believe that the recent decision by the central bank (BCB) to cut... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Manufacturing downturn shows price weakness is real The deterioration in global manufacturing confirmed in the September PMI supports our view that underlying demand for commodities is weakening and that their prices have not simply been caught up in... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 51.6 in September, from 50.6, demonstrates that the economy hasn't fallen off a cliff (at least not yet). But, at that level, the index is... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia HSBC/Markit PMI (Sep) September’s PMI data show that output in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector is still growing. But the fact that both the headline index and the output component have hit record lows suggests that... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing stalling September’s PMI surveys confirmed that manufacturing growth across the region has stalled. With export-led industry being the main (and in some cases only) driver of growth, this adds further weight... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Weaker financial services sector points to soft office rent outlook Compared with recent quarters, the tone of the latest CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey was pretty weak. Of course, given the turmoil of the past few months, that is no major surprise. Even so, today... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Risks of a treble-dip growing as economy loses momentum The improvement in the Tankan survey in the third quarter supports other evidence that GDP will at least temporarily return to growth. However, the outlook appears poor, momentum is weak and without a... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Will the 'Arab Spring' bring economic transformation? The recent political turmoil, the so-called ‘Arab Spring’, could ultimately lead to a marked acceleration in economic growth for some parts of the Arab World. Egypt, Morocco and, to a lesser extent... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Sep.) Q2’s national accounts and September’s CIPS report on services brought further bleak news on the UK economy. Not only was the recession back in 2008/09 deeper than previously thought, but the economy... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Can the mortgage market recovery weather the euro-zone crisis? Mortgage lending has strengthened in recent months. But strains from the crisis in the euro-zone are now showing through in UK lenders’ funding costs, giving another reason not to expect a fully... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What does the euro-zone crisis mean for Canada? The fiscal crisis in the euro-zone is threatening to derail the global economic recovery. Although Canada is a very open economy with exports still accounting for 30% of GDP, shipments to the euro... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rapid credit growth in Asia is a concern Private sector credit growth across emerging Asia has accelerated sharply since the economic recovery began in mid-2009. With domestic private sector credit as a share of GDP in emerging Asia at an... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is structural unemployment a problem? One reason why wage growth may have not fallen much below 2% could be that the structural unemployment rate has risen by more than most estimates suggest. The extent of skills and location mismatching... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Stimulus needed to prevent treble-dip The latest data from Japan painted a gloomy picture of current conditions and suggest the risks of a treble-dip are increasing. GDP should have returned to growth in Q3, but could fall again in Q4. In... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
