Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish elections reassuring but slowdown ahead Victory for the governing Civic Platform Party in yesterday’s parliamentary elections in Poland will be welcomed as a sign of business as usual by the markets. But with external headwinds building and... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How big a risk is a Chinese property crash? The boom in China’s construction sector has played an important role in driving demand for industrial metals, notably copper but also steel. Although there are two good reasons why the sector should... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Little reason to expect new QE to have major impact on property Commercial property is no longer obviously undervalued and, rather than a shortage of cash, it is a lack of suitable buildings available to buy that is currently the biggest problem for many investors... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Falling inflation will provide a welcome boost Inflation appears to have peaked in most of emerging Asia, opening the door for rate cuts across much of the region next year. In this week’s key events, policy rate decisions from Sri Lanka... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the US headed for recession? Our baseline view is still that the US economy will avoid a recession, albeit only narrowly. Furthermore, if there is a recession, we suspect it would be a fairly modest one because the most cyclical... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banks’ capital needs could be greater than feared The ECB took some fairly bold steps to improve commercial banks’ liquidity last week. But given the growing likelihood of default by some euro-zone governments, fears about banks’ solvency have surged... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly QE worth a try, but communication is vital Despite the mixed evidence on the effectiveness of the first bout of quantitative easing back in 2009, the MPC is right to give the policy another try. It may nudge the pound lower and could have... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the loonie's downward trend set to continue? The downward trend in the Canadian dollar, or loonie, against the US dollar over the last two months is broadly consistent with the deterioration in the global economic outlook and the resulting slide... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly GDP forecasts revised down In this Weekly we present our revised forecasts for Japanese GDP. The tail-end of the recovery from March’s disaster should ensure a return to growth in Q3, but beyond this the outlook has... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) There is no hint in September's Employment Report that another recession is starting. Nevertheless, the 103,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month is still consistent with what would normally be... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September's employment gain of 60,900 was a positive surprise, but the underlying details of the jobs report were less spectacular. Even so, it suggests that economic growth overall fared better in... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s fall in German industrial production supports other evidence that the recovery in what was previously the strongest sector of the euro-zone’s strongest economy has gone into reverse. 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German industrial property looks vulnerable to a shift in sentiment For now, the risks of a marked fall in prime industrial rental values in Germany look low, despite the recent downbeat industrial data. But the comparatively low level of industrial yields in Germany... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Sep.) September’s unexpectedly sharp rise in headline CPI inflation from 4.5% to 5.2% came as a bit of a nasty surprise. But the key point is that inflation is very close to a peak and should soon start to... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
