Europe Economics Weekly Are policymakers about to take decisive action? Signs that European policymakers may finalise a “comprehensive response” to the euro-zone debt crisis at the European Council meeting on 23rd October prompted the euro to climb sharply against the... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation in decline Inflation finally seems to be moving in the right direction, opening space for policy to be eased if necessary to support the economy. Credit quotas could be loosened before the end of the year. 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The stronger than expected increase in manufacturing sales and growth in unfilled orders is encouraging news. This provides further evidence that the economy rebounded in the third quarter, with... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The decent 1.1% m/m rise in retail sales in September shows that households are not completely down and out. Real consumption in the third quarter probably rose at an annualised rate of close to 2%... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation stays high, despite slower growth Wholesale price inflation data for India, released today, suggest the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to go ahead and raise its repo rate by a further 25bp, to 8.5%, at its next rate-setting... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy loosening on the way in Singapore The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) loosened its policy settings today by targeting a slower pace of currency appreciation. Q3 GDP figures, also released today, show that the economy had little... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent to fall further despite index rebasing (and Iran) We have been asked one or both of the same two oil-related questions by several clients this week. In summary, what are the implications of the addition of Brent to the basket for the Dow-Jones UBS... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: rate cuts expected from Q1 2012 Chile’s central bank (CBC) kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25% last night for a fourth straight month. We expect cuts from Q1 next year as global growth slows and food and energy price pressures... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3) The overall tone of the latest RICS commercial property survey took a marked turn for the worse. Indeed, the survey did nothing to ease concerns that, over the past three months, the risks of a... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final CPI (Sep.) & Trade (Aug.) The final euro-zone CPI data for September confirmed that both headline and core inflation rose sharply. But given the recent dramatic deterioration in the growth outlook, we still expect the ECB to... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too downbeat on office rent prospects in Germany and Geneva? Survey evidence suggests that the main German cities, as well as Geneva and Moscow, are the current, preferred destinations for firms looking to expand into new markets. Yet while this points to a... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Financing risks on the rise in Ukraine A hefty external financing requirement is casting a long cloud over the economic outlook for Ukraine. With limited access to private capital, the government will soon have no other option but to turn... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian rates could be cut next year There were no surprises from Egypt’s Central Bank today as the benchmark interest rate was left unchanged at 8.25%. Although the economy is still weak, and core inflation in single digits, the threat... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s Medium-Term Programme offers little comfort While Turkey’s Medium-Term Programme (MTP) for 2012-14, unveiled today, contains some movement towards fiscal tightening, we think that it is a case of too little too late. The MTP is based on overly... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
