Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) The steep fall in the euro-zone composite PMI further below the theoretical 50 “no-change” barrier supports our view that the consensus outlook for GDP growth in the region is far too optimistic. 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Smaller firms feel tightening squeeze China’s attempts to rein in off-balance-sheet lending by banks have compounded the difficulties faced by smaller firms that were already cut off from formal credit channels. Net new bank lending last... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Exporters start to struggle Supply-chain disruptions and weak demand for electronics had pulled down export growth in emerging Asia even before worries about the global outlook intensified recently. But exports have fared well... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed's monetary policy framework under the spotlight The Federal Reserve's framework for setting and communicating monetary policy came under the spotlight last week. It is understandable given the persistently high level of unemployment that economists... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will GDP get a boost from house building activity? Japan’s beleaguered housing sector is still waiting for a boost from reconstruction-related building activity. When it comes, it may be partially offset by falling demand for housing. Even before the... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Are leading indicators pointing to trouble ahead? With concerns over Europe's fiscal and financial mess dominating the headlines, domestic investors largely ignored the news last week that Statistics Canada's composite leading index suggests that... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Core inflation should soon start to ease Last week’s consumer prices data for September may have caused some members of the Monetary Policy Committee to swallow hard after their decision to extend the quantitative easing (QE) programme... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch time, again Aware of what is at stake and under the watchful glare of the world, euro-zone policymakers might finally put their differences aside and produce the goods at the forthcoming EC council meetings and... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) The stronger than expected increase in core CPI inflation, from 1.9% to 2.2% in September, is mostly due to higher clothing prices, reflecting the past run-up in cotton prices. Although core CPI... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little room for manoeuvre Although financial markets have recovered a little this month, the activity data from the region has continued to soften. Yet in pretty much every country, policymakers have less scope to stimulate... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dollar gains to add to downward pressures on prices The prospect of further strength in the US dollar is a clear and present danger to commodity prices of all types. But if the main driver is worries about sovereign debt, gold should still outperform. 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More to follow Brazil’s lead Brazil’s decision to continue cutting interest rates despite the fact that inflation is running at a five-year high remains as controversial as ever. Nonetheless, on balance we think that the central... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) On the face of it, September’s public finance figures suggested that the chance that the Government will bring borrowing down in line with its fiscal plans has increased. But we doubt that the figures... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) On the face of it, October’s modest decline in the headline Ifo index suggests that the German economy is still holding up reasonably well, but we continue to think that the index is understating the... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Policy loosening begins As fears mount over the outlook for the global economy and inflationary pressures continue to ease, policymakers across the region are increasingly looking to support demand. Over the past month... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
