US Fed Watch Fed still looking for ways to boost policy at the zero bound Only five weeks after the Fed announced its plan to extend the average maturity of its Treasury holdings and to reinvest principal payments from maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings back... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How healthy is Brazil's fiscal position? The Brazilian public finances have improved beyond measure following the various debt crises of the 1980s. But government debt remains high by regional standards, and could rise further, perhaps to as... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) Even after the 5.7% m/m rebound in new home sales to 313,000 annualised in September, from 296,000 the month before, purchases are still close to a record low and only a quarter of what they were... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Sep.) September's durable goods report is broadly consistent with our estimate that third-quarter GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% annualised, in part due to a sharp pick up in business investment (data due... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth holds up in face of headwinds The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) signals that the economy was strong to the end of Q3. But weaker growth lies ahead. 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish Central Bank tightens the screw Today’s move by the Central Bank of Turkey to suspend its 7-day repo auction and force banks to instead access finance via its overnight window amounts to a backdoor interest rate hike of as much as... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Forecast downgrade and further easing, with a twist The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board is highly likely to cut its forecasts for GDP and inflation at its meeting tomorrow. Along with the fragility of financial markets and the strength of the yen, this... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Economic growth in Vietnam to slow We have cut our growth forecast for Vietnamese GDP next year to a below-consensus 5%. The cut is due to a combination of persistently high inflation, continued monetary policy tightening, mounting... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen to strengthen to 60 against the dollar The resilience of the yen and a reassessment of the relative strengths of the various pressures on the Japanese currency have prompted us to change the direction of our forecasts. We now expect the... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Economic and property market outlook now even weaker All-property rental values again held broadly steady in September, which has now been the case for 21 months. But this continues to be largely due to Central London office markets. Looking ahead... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Worrying signs from Brazil's current account (again) Today’s current account data from Brazil provide further evidence that growth in Latin America’s largest economy is slowing sharply. 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia's Central Bank running out of options? Russia’s Central Bank (CBR) is in a bind. While recent liquidity shortages in the banking sector and an improved outlook for inflation argue in favour of monetary easing, the weak ruble and persistent... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.) The latest report on house prices from Case-Shiller suggest that the housing market has been a little bit softer than previously thought. In seasonally adjusted terms, the Case-Shiller 20-City house... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to cut policy rate next year The Bank of Canada now believes there is no need to remove any monetary policy stimulus anytime soon. Even this more dovish position, however, rests on the assumption that the global economy will... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The respectable 0.5% m/m gain in retail sales in August suggests that most households shrugged off the recent volatility in financial markets, despite evidence showing that confidence had fallen. In... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
