Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry slides into recession Data released today confirmed that Brazilian industry slipped into recession in Q3, while the manufacturing PMI points to a difficult Q4. In response, the recent imposition of trade tariffs sets a... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Oct.) China’s two manufacturing PMIs moved in opposite directions in October. We suspect that inventory restocking explains the rise in the more upbeat HSBC/Markit index. With final demand set to remain... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why do policymakers keep returning to long-term fixed rate mortgages? Successive policymakers, of whom the Housing Minister is the latest, have called for greater use of long-term fixed rate mortgages in the UK. The argument goes that long-term fixed rate mortgages... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renewed yen strength to keep Japan’s stock market weak Intervention by the Japanese authorities to weaken the yen has failed to prop up the country’s ailing stock market. Admittedly, the slide in equity prices has been due to renewed concerns about the... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP Preliminary Est. (Q3) & CIPS Manuf. (Oct.) The slightly better than expected GDP figures for the third quarter have not altered our view that the UK economy is likely to stagnate at best over the next year or so, with growing risks of another... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) The latest rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices is further confirmation that, for now, subdued demand for housing is being offset by a lack of properties for sale. But we suspect that house... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: WTO gains depend on wider economic reform After nearly 20 years of negotiations, Russia now appears to be on the cusp of joining the WTO. But while in theory at least WTO membership could bring major economic benefits, in practice these will... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) Further signs that some of the region’s most troubled economies are struggling to meet their budget deficit goals, coupled with growing evidence that the euro-zone is entering a new recession... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The 0.3% m/m increase in real GDP in August was solely due to the continuing rebound in energy production, which is still recovering from the disruptions in the spring caused by bad weather and... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The pronounced weakness of the latest broad money and lending data suggests that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was right to restart QE in October. However, the MPC seems to be getting less ‘bang... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Export weakness not Taiwan's only concern Taiwan always struggles when global demand slows and the coming year will be no exception. But the relative weakness of Taiwan’s labour market is a second reason to think that GDP growth in 2012 will... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: currency controls could prove self-defeating The raft of measures announced by Argentina’s government over the past few days to stem capital flight is unlikely to prevent further falls in the peso. Indeed, there is a real and growing risk that... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Oct./Sep.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment data might leave the hawks at the ECB still concerned about underlying price pressures. 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Yen intervention could be a one day wonder Today’s unilateral intervention has only succeeded in weakening the yen a little (from around 75.6 per dollar to 79.5, then back to 77.9) and is unlikely to be enough to turn the tide. Meanwhile, the... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates could still fall next year The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) left interest rates on hold at 4.5% on Friday night, but signalled a willingness to hike rates if the global environment improves. Nonetheless, while the... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
