Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) October's employment figures cruelly dashed any optimism that may have built up after the surprisingly good performance in September. Employment fell by 54,000 last month, reversing most of the 60,900... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage lending recovery comes to an end The majority of buyer demand measures deteriorated this month. With surveys suggesting that economic activity declined further in the early weeks of the fourth quarter, a recovery in the housing... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the drop in occupier market sentiment a sign of things to come? The weakening in sentiment towards European property markets revealed in the latest RICS survey is unlikely to be temporary. To our minds, if anything, it highlights the downside risks to consensus... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi makes a dovish start, but won’t up bond purchases The ECB’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% suggests that it is starting to acknowledge the effects of the region’s debt crisis on the wider economy. But, for now at least... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China on cusp of policy shift The coming few weeks are likely to mark a turning point in Chinese policy. October’s data should provide the clearest evidence yet that inflation is fading. Signs of stress are building in the real... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack On course to contract in Q4 An across-the-board deterioration in the economic data over the last month has left the UK economy on course to contract in the fourth quarter. While the first estimate of GDP revealed that output... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Employment schemes in the GCC: silver bullet or damp squib? The recent moves by the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to increase the participation of their citizens in the private sector jobs market, notably Saudi Arabia’s Nitiqat scheme, are... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek referendum episode has let the cat out of the bag However the Greek referendum episode is ultimately concluded, the fact that euro-zone leaders have for the first time openly acknowledged that a country can leave the single currency is a potentially... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Oct.) October’s CIPS/Markit report on services suggested that the overall economy is likely to contract in the fourth quarter and lent further support to our view that inflation will plummet next year. 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Oct) October’s PMI data show that growth in the UAE’s non-oil private sector has accelerated, but it is still much weaker than that seen earlier in the year. 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Greece? The chances of Greece holding a referendum appear to be diminishing and a general election seems likely before long, even if the Government wins Friday’s confidence vote. But whatever the precise... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deepening crisis to prompt widespread recession The euro-zone debt crisis is having a severely damaging impact on the European macro-economy. Not only are the troubled peripheral economies set to remain deep in recession, but growth prospects have... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Euro crisis likely to drag commodity prices much lower Our already low end-2013 forecasts for the prices of a range of major commodities, including Brent crude ($75 per barrel), copper ($5,000 per tonne) and corn (500 cents per bushel), assume that the... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode The Fed opted to stay on the sidelines today. Most probably because FOMC members want more time to judge how effective the Operation Twist programme announced at the last meeting in September has been... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
