Emerging Europe Economics Update The Baltic bounce looks set to fade The apparent resilience of the three Baltic economies continues to surprise. Data released over the past week show that Estonia grew by a solid 7.9% y/y in Q3, while growth edged up to 5.7% y/y in... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s producer prices figures are likely to mark the start of a major downward trend in input price inflation and also underline the competitive pressures bearing down on manufacturers’ pricing... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Has the worst passed for public sector cuts to London office demand? To us, it seems likely that the worst of the effects of fiscal tightening on public sector demand for Central London offices has not yet passed. To be fair, the public sector probably accounts for... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How will euro-zone banks cope if Italy needs a bail-out? 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Property returns to be dented by the global slowdown Most non-euro-zone European economies will avoid a recession in 2012, but not a marked slowdown in GDP growth. Even so, the weaker outlook for occupier demand suggests that rental value growth in most... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall back in 2012 and 2013 We expect the euro-zone to fall back into recession in 2012 and 2013. We have therefore cut our commercial property forecasts to reflect the weaker economic backdrop. Over the next two years, we... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Banking sector risks revisited Fears are mounting over the exposure of Emerging Europe’s banks to the deepening crisis in the euro-zone. Our view remains unchanged from that which we put forward earlier this year: the big risk to... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's international trade data confirm that net exports were a big positive for third-quarter economic growth, which we now estimate at 2.5% annualised. Although there are good reasons to not... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The narrowing in the trade deficit in September suggests that annualised third-quarter GDP growth may be revised up from 2.5% to perhaps 2.8%. But a slowdown in overseas activity means the external... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Growing stresses in the banking system This week’s surge in Italian government bond yields has catapulted the euro-zone debt crisis into a dangerous new phase. Italy’s problems pose a far greater threat to the region’s banks than those of... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of commodities (Oct.) The recovery in China’s commodity imports continued to gather pace in October. We remain of the view that this is mainly due to importers restocking, encouraged by lower prices, rather than any... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Inflation collapsing but no room for near-term rate cuts Although Egyptian inflation fell to its slowest rate for 4 years in October, currency concerns continue to prevent a near-term cut in interest rates. Indeed, if there is any rate change before the end... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Capital spending coming under pressure Today’s sharp fall in core machinery orders for September signals a slowdown in their upward trend. Worryingly, manufacturers expect this trend to turn negative in Q4. As orders are a good indicator... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC unlikely to pause for long Given that the £75bn of asset purchases announced in October has not been completed yet, today’s decision by the MPC to leave policy unchanged was unsurprising. However, the Committee has sent some... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia is cutting rates too aggressively Bank Indonesia (BI) unexpectedly cut its policy rate today by 50bp to 6.0%. Following a 25bp cut last month, strong third quarter GDP growth and continued rapid credit expansion, we think the central... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q3) On the face of it, the decline in mortgage arrears and the fact that the number of possessions rose only marginally are encouraging. However, against the backdrop of rising unemployment and falling... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
