US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Oct.) It is becoming quite clear that the economy has a decent amount of momentum that should help it cope, at least for now, with any adverse effects emanating from Europe. Annualised GDP growth in the... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Czech industrial market outlook darkens, but further rent falls unlikely The surge in the Czech industrial development pipeline has coincided with a marked softening in the occupier demand outlook. But we do not think that the vacancy rate will return to 2009’s highs... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Pillars of decent Q3 growth already crumbling The raft of third quarter GDP data released today contained some positive surprises – notably stronger than expected growth in Hungary and Romania. But given the speed at which the euro-crisis has... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Fingers crossed, October’s drop in inflation should mean that we have now passed the peak in inflation. The start of 2012 should see inflation begin to fall back sharply and we think that it will be... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & German ZEW (Nov.) The euro-zone’s modest expansion in Q3 could be the last for some time. With more timely indicators already very weak and the debt crisis set to deepen, the risks of another very sharp recession in... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The growth rate of money has levelled out over the past couple of months, with our reconstructed measure of the broad M3 aggregate expanding by about 5% over the past year. 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the IMF save the euro? Faced with the potential for a systemic financial crisis, the G20 group of leading nations may eventually agree a big increase in resources for the IMF. However, even if they do so, we doubt whether... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Sanctions threaten double-digit drop in Syrian GDP The Arab League’s decision to suspend Syria’s membership paves the way for harsher economic and political sanctions that should weaken President Bashar Al-Assad’s leadership. Admittedly, Iraq, Yemen... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-crisis takes centre stage The deepening crisis in the euro-zone has led to a marked deterioration in the outlook for growth across Emerging Europe, but it will bring a range of different responses from policymakers in the... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How much might conflict with Iran add to oil prices? The price of a barrel of Brent could spike from current levels of around $114 to anywhere between $135 and $210 in the unlikely event of a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities by the US or... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to slide 5% in 2012 We think that UK GDP will be flat in 2012 as a whole, with a technical recession likely in H1. Accordingly, commercial property rental values are likely to fall next year and income security fears... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unlikely to fire the silver bullet The idea that the European Central Bank (ECB) will fire a “silver bullet” into the euro-zone crisis by printing vast amounts of money to prop up the Italian bond market looks optimistic. Not only is... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy needs more than a new government The departure of Silvio Berlusconi may have prompted hopes that Italy has come back from the brink, but we still think that a new government is unlikely to prevent an eventual default. 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Solid Q3 for Russia, while Hungary teeters on the brink Data released today show that the Russian economy grew by a fraction under 5% y/y in the third quarter of this year, but leading indicators are already pointing to a slowdown in Q4. Meanwhile, the... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What are the implications of Argentina's subsidy cuts? Initial measures aimed at reducing Argentina’s growing subsidy bill are too small to make a meaningful difference to the public finances. Nevertheless, the commitment to review the entire subsidy... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
