Global Markets Focus The market fall-out from a Greek default and possible EMU exit Greece is on the cusp of a sovereign default that could still be either “orderly” or “disorderly”. An orderly default would cause less upheaval in the markets, but any respite would probably be... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) October’s public finance figures provided the Chancellor with some relatively good news ahead of next week’s Autumn Statement. But the deterioration in the prospects for economic growth (and hence... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Super committee failure not a disaster The apparent failure of the congressional deficit reduction super committee to reach any agreement is not the disaster it is being portrayed as by some commentators. As we argued in our most recent US... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Pick up in GDP growth won't be sustained in 2012 The latest incoming data suggest that US economic growth is accelerating, even as growth in Asia slows and Europe falls back into recession. Unfortunately, there are many reasons to fear that GDP... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Room for manoeuvre The deepening crisis in the euro-zone, coupled with fears of a slowdown in China, has meant that concerns about overheating in Latin America’s major economies have quickly given way to worries over... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Colliers/Real Estate Capital Pricing Survey Respondents to the Colliers/Real Estate Capital survey now expect commercial property prices to fall in 2012. The anticipated decline is roughly 2%, driven by adverse yield impact. However, we suspect... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Heading back into recession With the painful squeeze on real incomes set to continue, consumer spending will fall significantly further. We continue to expect real spending to contract by a further 2% or so by the end of 2012... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) The modest rise in existing home sales in October may reflect the recent improvements in economic activity and the labour market. But a sustained and significant recovery in home sales is just not on... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Worse to come for “core” euro-zone bonds? The yields on government bonds issued by France, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands have risen sharply in recent weeks in a worrying sign that the euro-zone’s debt crisis is starting to rot its... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Who will protect borrowers against lower house prices? The proposal to protect lenders against the risk of fresh falls in house prices should help to boost the supply of low-deposit mortgages next year. But it is far from clear that the overall supply of... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand set to loosen monetary policy Thailand’s Q3 GDP data show that the economy was struggling even before the flood situation worsened in late October. With activity weak, confidence flagging and fears for the global economy... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How bad is Vietnam’s fiscal position? Vietnam’s fiscal position has deteriorated in recent years. Debt levels would be even higher if contingent liabilities of the banking sector and state-owned enterprises are included. The biggest risk... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exports will likely be a drag on GDP The sharp fall in exports in October was in part the result of the floods in Thailand. However, exports have been sluggish for over a year and are likely to remain weak due to slowing global growth... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Weaker investment flows in the pipeline Uncertainty about the euro-zone economic outlook is prompting property investors to act more cautiously. Activity in Q3 was driven by deals initiated before the summer’s turmoil. We agree with survey... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What's behind the rebound in China's copper imports? The recent pick-up in Chinese imports of refined copper has been interpreted as a sign that underlying demand is rebounding in the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals. However, a closer look... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
