What's behind the rebound in China's copper imports?

The recent pick-up in Chinese imports of refined copper has been interpreted as a sign that underlying demand is rebounding in the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals. However, a closer look at copper trade flows to that country supports our view that the pick-up more probably reflects stockpiling to take advantage of lower prices, which is less likely to be sustained. What’s more, substitution between imports of refined copper and of copper scrap means that the former alone is not necessarily a reliable guide to aggregate demand.