Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian rate hike: another by-product of the unrest Today’s rate hike by 100 bps to 9.25% is a clear sign that Egypt’s central bank is increasingly concerned over growing balance of payments strains and the risk of a currency crisis. Although the... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Amsterdam retail rental outperformance won’t last Retail rental value growth in Amsterdam over the past year has been strong relative to other euro-zone markets and also relative to the office sector. In our view, there is little justification for... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Catch-22 for German Bunds Germany is caught between a rock and a hard place. If she rides to the rescue of her neighbours, she will undermine her own credit standing. If she chooses not to, the euro-zone will probably collapse... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Transactions activity improves in October, but it may be a peak Property Archive figures showed that, driven by a rise in the office sector, investment market activity improved again in October, increasing from £2.5bn in September to £2.8bn. Even so, anecdotal... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian banks tighten the screw The relative resilience of Brazilian credit growth when measured in annual terms masks the fact that lending growth has slowed fairly sharply when measured on a month-on-month basis. Industry has... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Why housing equity amplifies, not smoothes, the house price cycle For a time at least, rising house prices can be a virtuous circle, as equity gains provide the support for further house price growth. But if house prices fall, equity is destroyed while debt remains... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation to touch record lows We think that Russian inflation will hit a record low of 5.5% next year. Nevertheless, persistent capital outflows mean that monetary easing is off the cards for now. 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q3) Economic growth in the third quarter was driven by stockbuilding and government spending, neither of which is the basis for a sustained recovery. Indeed, the more forward-looking indicators suggest... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey & GDP Breakdown (Nov./Q3) November’s slightly stronger Ifo survey will do little to ease the growing concerns over the outlook for Germany in the wake of yesterday’s unsuccessful bund auction. 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia should continue to outperform next year While Colombia is unlikely to avoid the global slowdown altogether, we think it will outperform the likes of Brazil and Mexico next year. We expect GDP growth of 3.0% in 2012 and the strength of the... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Euro mess is by far the biggest risk to US outlook There is an incredible amount of uncertainty surrounding what impact a euro-zone recession and the potential break up of the single currency could have on the US economy and financial markets. The... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Western support for CEE banks starts to wane Austria’s decision to restrict lending by its banks to subsidiaries in Emerging Europe reflects a broader shift in sentiment on the part of Western banks away from supporting units further east. This... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Survey (Q3) Today’s RICS construction survey again showed divergent trends, with declines in public sector activity in Q3 broadly offset by growth in the private sector. But in turn, the latter depended solely on... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Better economy starts to help young workers Our employment model suggests that the recent improvement in economic activity is consistent with non-farm payrolls increasing by around 100,000 in November, up from October's 80,000 gain. It is also... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders & Personal Spending (Oct.) October's weaker than expected personal spending and durable goods orders data suggest that annualised fourth-quarter GDP growth may be closer to 2.5% rather than the 3.0% that previously looked... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
